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The Mets and Bo Bichette<\/strong> they reportedly have a deal in place, a three-year contract with a maximum annual salary and an opt-out after each season. It seems like you almost went the normal route. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Phillies thought they would buy out Bichette for a $200MM contract over seven years until the Mets stepped in with their offer after the loss. Kyle Tucker<\/strong> at the Dodgers last night. Matt Gelb of The Athletic says the offer was between $190MM and $200MM.<\/p>\n The full breakdown of the contribution from Philly is unknown, so it is difficult to fully compare the two approaches. For example, Philly’s offer may or may not contain deferred fees or exits, which may change the perception of your value.<\/p>\n But the basic structure is very much in line with expectations from the start of the offseason. Back in November, MLBTR projected Bichette to a $208MM deal over eight years, an average annual value of $26MM. Philly’s offer, assuming no waivers were involved, would have been a slightly lower guarantee but at a higher AAV of $28.6MM.<\/p>\n That type of deal would be in line with other deals that All-Star midfielders have received in recent years. Willy Adams<\/strong>, Dansby Swanson<\/strong>, Marcus Semien<\/strong>, Javier Baez<\/strong> again Trevor’s story<\/strong> all received guarantees between $140MM and $182MM in recent years, on deals six or seven years long.<\/p>\n Bichette decided to go the other way and it’s understandable why. He is still very young, only 27 years old, he turns 28 in March. For this Mets deal, the specific structure has not been reported, but it is an average annual value of $42MM. If he stays healthy and productive, he could bank more than 20% of what the Phils offered him in one year, then head back to the open market looking for another long-term offer. If he has an injury-shortened season or his performance declines, he can refuse to come out and continue to lead at a high rate. Even if he plays out all three years of his deal with the Mets, he will have earned nearly two-thirds of Philly’s contribution. He will be entering his age 31 season and could look to make a difference then.<\/p>\n He can also reassess the general spending situation. The current collective bargaining agreement expires next winter. The industry expects a lockout, just as there was a time to keep the CBA from expiring, but that lockout led to gains for free agents. Balance tax competition has increased, which has helped spur spending over the past few years. The owners are expected to push for a break next winter but it is nothing new for them. They’ve pushed that before without players agreeing to it, so it’s possible that players will get benefits from the CBT environment as well.<\/p>\n Both Tucker and Bichette decided to go the short-term, advanced AAV route. Often, top free agents go out looking for the security of a long-term deal but settle for these types of programs when they don’t get what they want. At least in Bichette’s case, it seems like she shouldn’t have gone this way but she chose to. Tucker probably did. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports that he had long-term deals, as long as ten years. No details have been reported on those gifts, but they may be coming from the Blue Jays. Recent reports suggested they were more willing to go longer than the Mets or Dodgers.<\/p>\n It’s hard to say if this is indicative of some kind of trend from the team’s perspective. Finally, we’re talking about two data points here with Tucker and Bichette. It’s understandable why teams want to avoid long-term commitments. Signing a top free agent usually involves giving him a longer contract than other teams are willing to do. Those later years can be painful as a player pushes into his 30s and his production declines.<\/p>\n But convincing a player to go the short-term route often means increasing AAV levels. Groups that can’t do that usually have higher initial payments, and therefore higher tax liabilities. With Tucker’s deal, the Dodgers will only pay him an AAV of $57.1MM, including deferrals. They will also pay 110% tax on that AAV, resulting in a tax bill of approximately $63MM. That means they value Tucker’s 2026 campaign at about $120MM. Unless they dip below the top tax bracket in 2027, it will be the same this season.<\/p>\n The Dodgers seem to be choosing this route for a variety of reasons. They have a relatively old roster, with many of their key players in their mid-30s. They probably know they can’t field a team as successful as that forever and they need younger players to step up. Many of their top prospects are outfielders who have yet to reach Triple-A and are therefore still a little over the horizon. So Tucker’s short-term deal is the perfect bridge to that next season.<\/p>\n For the Mets, president of baseball operations David Stearns has found his job with the club already has a lot of money on the books and seems reluctant to add to it. Despite having access to Steve Cohen’s checkbook, he has largely played for the club on three-year deals. An exception is made Juan Soto<\/strong>A significant deal, though he was a special case as a free agent heading into his age-26 season.<\/p>\n With the exception of Soto, Stearns has never offered anyone a contract longer than three years. They reportedly stretched a bit by giving Tucker four years, even though he took a very similar offer from the Dodgers. The Mets then wanted to offer Bichette a solid three-year deal. It seems that the club prefers to spend more money now, in terms of wages and taxes, so as not to damage their long-term image with deals for older players. Full details of Bichette’s deal with the Mets have not been released but the Mets will likely pay more than $40MM in annual taxes, more than Bichette will receive.<\/p>\n That goes hand in hand with their other duties. They alternate with the remaining five years Brandon Nimmo<\/strong>This is a deal Marcus Semien<\/strong>signed for three years but at a high level. They seem unwilling to go beyond three years of both Pete Alonso<\/strong> or Edwin D\u00edaz<\/strong>both signed elsewhere. The Mets have also been looking to start pitching but reportedly prefer to avoid long-term deals there as well.<\/p>\n It is not clear whether these types of preferences will last forever or if it is due to current conditions. TheMets have some decent veterans on the roster but are waiting for the younger guys Nolan McLean<\/strong>, Jonah Tong<\/strong>, Brandon Sproat<\/strong>, Carson Benge<\/strong>, Jett Williams<\/strong> and others to create a new context. Perhaps as those players become established at the big league level, and big-money contracts expire, the front office will be more willing to make long-term investments.<\/p>\n Whether this is a practice or not will depend on the upcoming collective bargaining agreement. The current CBA, which was negotiated during the 2021-22 lockout, saw tax increases increase significantly. That seems to have worked well for the players, as spending has remained steady since the signing of the CBA. Some groups will argue that this type of spending is why the minimum wage is needed but they benefit from the current system. Part of the tax money collected from big-spending clubs is redistributed to other teams, along with other profit-sharing payments.<\/p>\n The players don’t seem to agree to be paid no matter what. They may also point out that the cap system will likely still see marquee free agents get paid well, while mid-tier and lower-tier free agents are likely to be eliminated.<\/p>\n If this becomes the norm, it will be remarkable to watch it play out over time. Maybe deals are as tough as those Chris Bryant<\/strong> or Anthony Rendon<\/strong> will decrease significantly but players who are consistently productive can earn more money by continuing to command higher salaries.<\/p>\n The Phillies didn’t like the Dodgers\/Mets approach. Gelb reports that they weren’t willing to offer Bichette a short-term, high-AAV deal because of their tax situation. Like the Dodgers and Mets, they are repeat taxpayers in the top CBT bracket, meaning a 110% tax on additional spending. So they preferred to make a long offer, signing Bichette for 30 years at a low annual rate.<\/p>\n It appears that they have already spent the money that Bichette did not take. They reportedly have a three-year, $45MM deal to bring him back JT Realmuto<\/strong>. The $15MM AAV on that deal is well south of what they offered Bichette, but the Bichette deal would likely have resulted in a third baseman trade. Alec Bohm<\/strong>who will make $10.2MM this year. The Phils will be sticking with Realmuto and Bohm for roughly the same annual price as they would have paid for Bichette.<\/p>\n It would have been an interesting alternative for the Phils. The seven-year commitment would add another long-term deal to an already valued club. But on the other hand, Bichette would have been a welcome addition to the youth. Most of the Phillies’ key players are both in their 30s and long-term signings. Tagging the 28-year-old Bichette would have gone against that but he’s gone the other way, leaving the Phils to stick with Realmuto and the same club as last year.<\/p>\n Photo courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The Mets and Bo Bichette they reportedly have a deal in place, a three-year contract with a maximum annual salary and an opt-out after each season. It seems like you almost went the normal route. 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