Matt Bowen is a great football and NFL writer for ESPN. He joined ESPN in 2015, writes regularly for ESPN+ and spent many years on “NFL Matchup.” After graduating from the University of Iowa, Matt played safety in the NFL for the St. Louis, Green Bay, Washington and Buffalo for seven seasons.<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\nThe divisional round of the NFL playoffs is here, and we have four great matchups. The wild-card round featured three upsets, including wins by both No. 6 seeds (the 49ers and Bills), marking the first time since 2020 that multiple teams received the No. 6 or less advance to the division stage.<\/p>\n
Could we see some surprise wins this weekend? I gave the keys to victory — one offensive and one defensive — to all four underdogs in the divisional round. That includes three road teams in the Bills, 49ers and Texans, and the Bears, who have a tough game in Chicago against the Rams. These winning programs focus on personnel cooperation, scheme benefits, coaching orientation and game tape visibility. I then chose one X factor player who would have the most impact on each team.<\/p>\n
Let’s take a look at how the bottom four can win their respective division championships, starting with the Bills vs. Broncos. (ESPN’s Football Power Index and DraftKings Sportsbook provided odds for each game.)<\/p>\n
Jump to group:<\/strong>
When:<\/strong> Saturday, 4:30 pm ET (CBS)FPI Forecast:<\/strong> DEN, 51.6%Game line:<\/strong> DEN -1.5<\/p>\nOffensive key to victory: <\/strong>Have answers to people’s questions<\/p>\nThe Broncos played a man role (Cover 1, two man, zero man) on a league-high 60.8% of running backs this season. And Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph will bring personal pressure, as the Broncos’ blitz rate of 31.3% was the seventh highest in 2025. So, Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady must call the punters into man coverage, while getting the ball out of quarterback Josh Allen’s hands at a rapid rate.<\/p>\n\nEditor’s Choice<\/h2>\n 2 Related<\/p>\n<\/aside>\n
This won’t be Allen’s first test against heavy coverage this season, as he faces Cleveland, Houston and Atlanta. What does the tape tell us there?<\/p>\n
Bison can move sticks on quick, three-step throws (unders, crosses, screens) to wide receiver Khalil Shakir. Brady can also use his pick\/rub concepts to free up receivers and tight ends on wheel routes and interceptions. Also, he can set up snap plays and one-on-ones to Brandin Cooks and Keon Coleman on the edge.<\/p>\n
Defensive key to victory:<\/strong> Recent movements and local discipline<\/p>\nWe know what the Bills are from a defensive standpoint. They play high double coverage (52.9% of enemy drops) and late moves to change the picture. Buffalo will rotate their safeties quickly and play with excellent zone discipline and vision to cover throwing lanes. And I don’t think the Bills will change their defensive identity against Denver quarterback Bo Nix.<\/p>\n
Against coverage this season, Nix has completed 64.5% of his throws with seven interceptions. That worked out to a 49.4 QBR compared to an 82.6 QBR against man. This is a play where the Bills can get deep into the secondary, thus being pressured by windows in the middle of the field and having safeties up top to break. It’s basic football for Buffalo, but that should be enough against coach Sean Payton’s ideas.<\/p>\n
Bills X factor impact:<\/strong> Safety Cole Bishop closed the door on the Jaguars by meeting quarterback Trevor Lawrence in the wild-card game. On Saturday, he’ll be tasked with staying on straight routes in the deep half, spinning down to cut off breakers and get into run fronts. Bishop had three breaks in regular time.<\/p>\n
When:<\/strong> Saturday, 8pm ET (Fox)FPI Forecast:<\/strong> SEA, 59.6%Game line:<\/strong> SEA -7<\/p>\nOffensive key to victory:<\/strong> Create passable windows against cover 2<\/p>\nThe Seahawks defense is playing with an incredible team pursuit. Physical unit, allowing a league-low 3.7 yards per carry this season. The 49ers, on the other hand, cannot function well when running the ball with Christian McCaffrey. So, to get some answers, I think we should focus on coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense — which will be without George Kittle (torn Achilles).<\/p>\n
In Week 18 when San Francisco faced Seattle, quarterback Brock Purdy had just one completion of 20 yards or more, and he saw plenty of two-deep coverage from Seattle. He completed 12 of 16 passes against the ground but averaged just 5.8 yards per attempt. The Seahawks were determined to stop throwing down since they made easy balls.<\/p>\n
That’s where Shanahan can now open windows for Purdy, using play action on first downs to get Seattle’s linebackers and safeties out of position. Shanahan will have to define the right targets and get Purdy in a rhythm to make some plays. Jauan Jennings and Demarcus Robinson can work at average levels; tight end Jake Tonges can stretch the seams.<\/p>\n
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play<\/span>\n1:23<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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Stephen A. has high praise for Kyle Shanahan<\/p>\n
Stephen A. Smith gives 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan his flowers after the team’s victory over the Eagles in the playoffs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Defensive key to victory:<\/strong> Slow down the Seahawks’ running game on first downs<\/p>\nThe 49ers and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh could expand the game plan in passing situations against Sam Darnold. They need to speed up Darnold by snapping or hiding looks, checking his decisions when he’s late. But to do that, the 49ers must first win on first downs against the Seahawks’ zone running game.<\/p>\n
In Week 18, Kenneth Walker III averaged 7.5 yards per carry for outside zone ideas, pushing the ball to the perimeter and finding creases to go straight. Zach Charbonnet added 7.4 yards per play on the ground play, often flexing the ball until noon.<\/p>\n
I don’t see this as a scheme problem, as Saleh can get numbers up front against 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end, two wide receivers) and 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two receivers). Instead, this is about cutting the ball off the edge, which San Francisco failed to do consistently in Week 18. The 49ers also need their cutbacks to play with discipline.<\/p>\n
The bottom line? You can’t give up 5.0 yards on first downs now.<\/p>\n
The impact of the 49ers X factor: <\/strong>Tonges doesn’t have the lower body flexibility of Kittle, but he can run all the routes needed to complete Shanahan’s offense. He caught 34 passes for five touchdowns in the regular season. After Kittle exited in the wild-card round against the Eagles, Tonges had just one catch for 14 yards, however. In Seattle, you will need to expose the seams and the crosses, while working the area under the voids as Purdy’s outlet.<\/p>\n
When:<\/strong> Sunday, 3pm ET (ESPN\/ABC)FPI Forecast:<\/strong> NE, 52.0%Game line:<\/strong> AND -3<\/p>\nOffensive key to victory: <\/strong>Create explosive games in deep learning<\/p>\nWith wide receiver Nico Collins ruled out (concussion), the Texans will have to plan more to make explosive plays. And if you watch the tape of Houston, coordinator Nick Caley likes to create coverage voids on very low reads for quarterback CJ Stroud.<\/p>\n\nWhat you need to know about the NFL playoffs<\/h2>\n
\u2022 Card questions, overreaction
Here, the Texans can use Christian Kirk and rookie Jaylin Noel in deep routes to attack the third outside of coverage. This is Stroud’s rhythm throwing that can lead to explosive opportunities, as we saw many times when he guided Kirk against Pittsburgh in the wild card round. Kirk finished with eight catches for 144 yards and a score. Caley can set up Stroud’s defense in play action to continue, as that would force other defenders to play underneath.<\/p>\n
Defensive key to victory:<\/strong> Play free installation for people<\/p>\nWe will see the depth position from coach DeMeco Ryans on Sunday. But the Texans have played a free role on 34% of their downs this season (sixth-most in the NFL), which could hamper Pats quarterback Drake Maye’s season.<\/p>\n
Quarterback Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter, along with Jalen Pitre in the slot, would be a good fit for New England’s wide receivers. And that’s key given the number of throws (outlets, in-breakers, pivots and crossers) in the Patriots’ passing game.<\/p>\n
The impact of the Texans X factor: <\/strong>Calen Bullock has the best range of any safety in the league, as he can track the ball from deep down the field and pressure the straight edge in Cover 2. His ability to cover the post is a key part of the Texans’ scheme. Bullock had four interceptions in the regular season, and took one back to pace Pittsburgh.<\/p>\n
When:<\/strong> Sunday, 6:30 pm ET (NBC)FPI Forecast:<\/strong> LAR, 60.7%Game line:<\/strong> LAR -3.5<\/p>\nOffensive key to victory:<\/strong> Enter the 12-man passing game<\/p>\nThe Bears have produced 21 completions of 20 yards or more from 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two receivers) this season, tied for second most in the league. With this setup, coach Ben Johnson can get more numbers in pass protection from Rams edge rushers Jared Verse and Byron Young. That will give quarterback Caleb Williams plenty of time for third-level throws or shooting plays against LA’s lackluster secondary.<\/p>\n
Also, Chicago could use Colston Loveland’s versatility to get good matchups on the perimeter against LA’s corners.<\/p>\n
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play<\/span>\n1:00<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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What can the Bears do to slow down the Rams offense on Sunday?<\/p>\n
Courtney Cronin reports from the Bears center about the focus Chicago’s defense must have against the No. 1 offense in the Rams.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Defensive key to victory:<\/strong> Play the story of two people on the third floor<\/p>\nDefensive coordinator Dennis Allen has had Bears in two-man coverage on 11.1% of his snaps this season, sixth most in the league. I would increase that number on third downs against quarterback Matthew Stafford.<\/p>\n
This will put the Bears in a position to rotate their safeties, block direct routes on the tight end of the formation and use the edge safeties to break through the middle throws. The two-man lineup should also shut down the Rams’ preferred routes in the middle of the field. It will also help the Bears limit free access off the ball to receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.<\/p>\n
The Bears X factor effect:<\/strong> Rookie wide receiver Luther Burden III has caught 20 of 27 points in his last four games. He can be a multi-level target, while seeing the ball on screens or fly sweeps. With his open-field vision and ability to make sudden moves, Burden can create impactful plays.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Matt BowenJan 16, 2026, 04:00 PM ET Shut up Matt Bowen is a great football and NFL writer for ESPN. He joined ESPN in 2015, writes regularly for ESPN+ and spent many years on “NFL Matchup.” After graduating from the University of Iowa, Matt played safety in the NFL for the St. Louis, Green Bay, …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2407,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[48],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2406","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.insightresearcher.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2406","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.insightresearcher.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.insightresearcher.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.insightresearcher.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.insightresearcher.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2406"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.insightresearcher.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2406\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2408,"href":"https:\/\/www.insightresearcher.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2406\/revisions\/2408"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.insightresearcher.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2407"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.insightresearcher.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2406"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.insightresearcher.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2406"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.insightresearcher.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2406"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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