\n<\/p>\n
Just when talk of a Skubal trade — a topic that dominated headlines early in the season — seems to have settled down, could the events of last week cause the Tigers to reevaluate the idea of \u200b\u200btrading for the two-time defending American League Cy Young Award winner?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
“I don’t think it changes much,” said the AL official. “I think if they lose, it might limit what they can do financially. But I doubt they will do that alone.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Skubal is entering his final year in control of the club, set to become a free agent next season. Fresh off of a Cy Young season, the 29-year-old is determined to cash in on a big contract next winter, with many tipping him to get the biggest contract in history.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
That record is currently held by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, whose 12-year, $325 million contract ($27.1 million average annual value) with the Dodgers is the biggest guarantee of any pitcher. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander hold the record for average annual value at $43.3 million, which they received on short-term deals with the Mets in 2022 and 2023. Zack Wheeler is the only other pitcher with an AAV over $40 million, signing a three-year, $126 million extension with the Phillies beginning in 2025.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
In terms of deals over five years, the highest AAV in bullpen history belongs to Gerrit Cole, who inked a nine-year, $324 million ($36 million AAV) deal with the Yankees in December 2019. Skubal — who is in his prime among free agents next winter — could end that. (For now, the next best pitchers to hit free agency next winter are Kevin Gausman, Freddy Peralta and Chris Sale, and the best player is arguably Jazz Chisholm Jr. or Randy Arozarena.)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Skubal filed for a record $32 million contract, while the Tigers countered with a $19 million salary. Trading Skubal before his trial — which will take place between Jan. 26 and Feb. 13 — would be difficult, as many teams may want to know what the financial commitment will be in 2026 before trading the ace.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
“I think the team would want him to go through the arbitration process and see what the salary is before the trade,” the National League official said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
“With the risk of $32 million per year, there may be clubs that can afford him, although I would guess that most teams will find a place around $20 million,” said an AL official. “His trade before listening would be difficult because the new team will go to [hearing] and the boy they just found.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
There is a recent trade precedent for this, and it involves the Dodgers, a team that is always the subject of rumors when a star player is involved. Back in February 2020, they found Mookie Betts as he entered his final year before free agency. Betts, who had settled on a $27 million deal with the Red Sox just weeks before the trade, signed a 12-year, $365 million extension with Los Angeles that July, locking him up with the Dodgers before he hit the open market.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Unlike Skubal, however, Betts was not represented by agent Scott Boras, who rarely negotiates major extensions for his star clients when free agency approaches. In terms of the seemingly unlikely extension, the Tigers have three options regarding Skubal:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\u2022 Keep him, play through the 2026 season and take his shot at free agency. In this case, they will extend a qualifying offer and receive compensation for a draft pick if he signs elsewhere.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\u2022 Trade him before the season, which would allow the receiving team to extend a qualifying offer at the end of the year and recoup draft compensation if he leaves.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\u2022 Trade him this summer (probably only if he’s out of contention), when contending teams may be willing to pay more despite not being able to offer him a worthy offer.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
While the exact number Skubal will demand in free agency remains to be seen, the Tigers may have an idea of \u200b\u200bwhether or not they believe he can make a legitimate run at re-signing. If they don’t think they can, then trading him would make sense to bring back a bunch of Major League ready players instead of a compensatory draft pick.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Trading Skubal before the season would seal the deal, or weaken Detroit’s bid to return to the postseason for the third straight year. The preseason deal would give the Tigers a wider pool of potential suitors than at the Trade Deadline, when only competing teams could pay the minimum price of two months or more for Skubal’s services.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
The risk of waiting until the summer to trade Skubal, of course — barring a possible injury — would be that the Tigers would find themselves in the middle of their postseason run, which would present president of baseball Scott Harris with a tough decision: Do you try to make an October run or extend Skubal’s return?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
The reliever swap may have introduced a new wrinkle in the Skubal saga, but the consensus within the industry is that Detroit will keep the ace and review the situation as the season progresses.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
“I think the uncertainty makes it less likely that they will move him,” the NL official said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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