With Cody Bellinger, Bo Bichette and Kyle Tucker off the board last week, MLB’s free agency has hit home turf — but there will still be some big moves in the coming weeks before spring training begins.
Where will the remaining free agents go? Will we see a blockbuster commercial? And how will Tarik Skubal’s arbitration case with the Detroit Tigers play out?
We asked our MLB experts to make one bold prediction about where this offseason will go from here.
The story of Skubal
Tarik Skubal will win his arbitration case
Arbitration chambers are notorious for their unpredictability. Lawyers who have argued cases have left the room convinced they’ve made closed arguments — and failed. Some were disheartened after that, convinced of defeat, and won. Which means that whatever approach Tarik Skubal’s team takes in trying to convince the three-person panel that he’s worth the $32 million he’s asking for instead of the $19 million the Detroit Tigers are offering, the end result is a crapshoot.
So why will he win? It’s pretty simple: Even if the comparison favors Detroit, even if the $32 million award would crush the previous high awarded by more than $12 million, Skubal is the first American Leaguer to win back-to-back Cy Young Awards since Pedro Martinez in 1999-2000. And in a world where minor leaguers earn $30 million-plus a season and Skubal can match his salary with any in MLB, his performance — the best pitcher in baseball — will be enough to carry the day. — Jeff Passan
Teams ready to do big
The Baltimore Orioles — yes, the Orioles — are about to win free agency
Baltimore has already committed $195 million to four free agents — Pete Alonso, Ryan Helsley, Zach Eflin and Leody Taveras — ranking sixth in spending so far. But general manager Mike Elias, entering the final year of his contract, has another haymaker left: Framber Valdez.
With Ranger Suárez getting $130 million over five years in Boston, Valdez plans to get about six years and $180 million — a deal that would push the O’s past the Dodgers and Blue Jays as baseball’s top free agent spenders. — Paul Heberekides
The Red Sox will add at least one bat — because they really should, right?
Because not doing so would be wild, right? The Red Sox have devoted a lot of resources this winter to bolster their quality and depth, from the Sonny Gray trade to the $130 million signing of Ranger Suarez. But they’ve been standing in their everyday spot, adding Willson Contreras before surprising the Cubs with the Alex Bregman deal.
After Roman Anthony’s injury at the end of 2025, the Red Sox appear to be two bats short — their series against the Yankees was like a middleweight boxer against a heavyweight — and if Boston’s lineup is not improved, they will be incredibly reliant on Anthony and Contreras, in a division that includes Vladimir. Henderson. — Buster Olney
AJ Preller and the San Diego Padres are going to do something big
Going back to the winter meetings, one theme kept coming up in conversations with agents and managers across the industry: Preller, the Padres’ general manager, is busy, busy. His free-agent talks and trade talks went head-to-head, as they often do, but he hasn’t yet produced anything tangible.
The Padres brought back Michael King, but their rotation needs more help. They signed Korean defender Sung-Mun Song, but need another brace or two.
Sometimes, a big move comes along. That seems to be anyone’s guess, but with the Padres’ championship window getting closer and closer with each passing year, Preller isn’t about to let the Dodgers run away with another division title and create more separation from the National League. It doesn’t matter if money is tight or his plan is dry; he’ll find a way to add impactful talent, because that’s what he does and, sometimes to a fault, that’s what he wants. — Alden Gonzalez
Trading on the horizon
The New York Yankees will trade Jason Dominguez before the start of spring training.
Bellinger’s re-signing with New York was good news for almost everyone associated with the organization except for Dominguez. The former can’t-miss prospect was previously expected to start in left field for the Yankees. Now that job belongs to Bellinger, pushing Dominguez out of an everyday role.
Dominguez’s speed and ability to hit left-handed versus right-handed would make him useful off the bench. And he turns 23 in February. But he’s a poor defender — the Yankees apparently don’t believe he’s a major league hitter and he struggled a lot in lefties last season — and he hasn’t shown that he can hit righties in the majors. The Yankees could use him as part of a trade to shore up another position — perhaps a relief pitcher or right-handed catcher or outfielder.
Martian is talented, but he can get to another place soon. – Jorge Castillo
Brendan Donovan will be traded to the San Francisco Giants
The Giants need a second baseman and the Cardinals trade any hitter within sniffing distance of the 30s. It’s a great game, although a little less exciting than when the Cardinals and Giants traded Rogers Hornsby and Frankie Frisch.
The Giants are a good team to capitalize on the weaknesses of Donovan’s team compared to the rest. Pair his career .812 OPS against righties with Tyler Fitzgerald’s .841 OPS against lefties and you have a solid keystone combination. The Cardinals can then transfer the position to Thomas Saggese and clear a small runway for the imminent arrival of JJ Wetherholt. — Bradford Doolittle
New York Mets trade Brett Baty to Seattle Mariners for Jurrangelo Cijntje and Matt Brash
With Bichette’s signing, Baty was outclassed in New York. He could slide to first base or DH, but the Mets have Jorge Polanco and Mark Vientos at those positions. Instead, look for David Stearns to use Baty to help fill out his farm system after the Freddy Peralta and Luis Robert Jr. trades. Cijntje is a tough switch-pitcher the Mariners drafted in the first round in 2024. You need a lot of seasoning but a potential power arm for rotation. Brash provides some needed bullpen depth.
The Mariners have been mentioned in trade talks for Donovan, but Baty is a better fit, with shortstop Ben Williamson currently the starter at third base. Baty is still pre-arb, so he’s a good payroll fit, and he comes with four years of team control while coming off a 3.1-WAR season that saw a much-improved defense. Baty is allowing top prospect Colt Emerson more time in the minors before replacing JP Crawford at shortstop in 2027. And even after trading Cijntje, the Mariners will still have two top 100 prospects in Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan. – David Schoenfield
Nick Castellanos will be traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates….and the Philadelphia Phillies are spending a lot of money
The Pirates still need to be beaten, right? And the Castellanos still need a new home. How about a cap-and-trade with the Phillies that takes up the bulk of the contract — say $15 million of the $20 million Castellanos was owed in 2026. The Pirates don’t even have to send anyone in the deal. Just give them his money and watch Castellanos light up PNC Park, proving all the naysayers wrong. – Jesse Rogers
Great signing on the way
Justin Verlander returns to the Detroit Tigers
Verlander, the second overall pick in the 2004 MLB draft by the Tigers, won 183 games in 13 years for Detroit. Last season, he won four games for the Giants, but his 1.2 WAR wasn’t that bad, in context. Only four Tigers pitchers have earned more WAR (Skubal, Reese Olson, Will Vest, Casey Mize).
The Tigers will certainly make room in their rotation for this future Hall of Famer, who not only provides veteran leadership to a team seeking its third straight title, but warrants induction based on on-field performance. — Eric Karabell
The Pittsburgh Pirates signed 3B Eugenio Suarez.
I’m already on the board for the National League Central led by the Pirates this year, and what better way to push them in that direction than to talk to them. difficult The power shortage is one of the best explosives still on the free agent market? Suarez could accept a shorter deal with a higher AAV and/or an opt-out after 2026 — think two years, $42 million — and could balance what is currently a heavy Pirates team thin on the left side of the infield. — Tristan Cockcroft
