The Broncos’ AFC title game chances are falling following Bo Nix’s injury
The NFL’s final four is set and the betting lines aren’t what many would have expected before the season — or even before last weekend.
The New England Patriots opened as 4.5-point road favorites over the Denver Broncos for the AFC championship, while the Seattle Seahawks opened as 1.5-point home favorites over the Los Angeles Rams for the NFC championship, according to DraftKings lines. After early betting, New England jumped to -5.5 and Seattle to 2.5.
Going forward, the Broncos were 1.5-point favorites over the Patriots, but saw their odds drop quickly following news that quarterback Bo Nix would miss the rest of the postseason with a broken right ankle. Bookies polled say Nix is worth anywhere between five and seven points in the spread.
“We’re looking forward to seeing how these two defensive teams match up in the AFC Championship and we’re looking forward to seeing how much of an impact Bo Nix has had on this Broncos team throughout the year,” Caesars Sportsbooks head of football Joey Feazel told ESPN. “We are also eager to see where the sharpest players will end up in this game.”
A sharp early action could have contributed to making the Pats even bigger favorites. John Murray, vice president of Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said he was “surprised to see how big a New England favorite has been pushed.” [on Sunday].”
If the 5.5 line holds, New England will be the largest road favorite in a conference championship game since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, according to ESPN Research.
The issues of Denver’s future were also greatly affected by Nix’s injury. Going into Saturday, the Broncos were +700 in the Super Bowl, according to DraftKings, and just after their win over the Buffalo Bills, they were +370. They rose to +650 after the Nix news, then to +950 by the end of Saturday, before settling at +1100. It would be the longest odds to win a Super Bowl entering a conference championship since the New York Giants (+1500) in January 2008; The Giants famously won all that year.
The Seahawks lead the way on the Super Bowl board heading into the conference championship games, with +145 odds, followed by the Rams at +225 and the Patriots at +255.
All of these teams started the season as relative long shots: Denver and Los Angeles were +2200 each, while New England and Seattle were +6000 each. Either of the former two winning teams would represent the longest preseason odds since the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles (+4000), and either of the latter two would mark the longest since the 2001 Patriots (+6000).
With most of the public’s Super Bowl favorites eliminated, there’s little left for sportsbooks to sweat, but at least a few credits are still on the board: BetMGM said a Seahawks Super Bowl win would be its worst result, while DraftKings pegged a Patriots win as its worst.
ESPN’s David Purdum contributed to this report.
