2026 NFL Divisional Round prediction, odds: Texans vs. Patriots picks, best bet

The fifth-seeded Houston Texans will look to extend their winning streak to 10 games when they take on the second-seeded New England Patriots in the 2026 NFL division championship on Sunday. Houston advanced with a 30-6 win over Pittsburgh, while New England defeated the Los Angeles Chargers 16-3 in the Wild Card Round. The Texans (12-5), who finished 10-2 against the AFC this season, have outscored their opponents by 109 points. The Patriots (14-3), who were 9-3 within the conference, have a plus-170 point differential. Houston will be without wide receiver Nico Collins (concussion).

Kickoff is scheduled for 3 pm ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. Houston has won three of the last four meetings with New England. The Patriots are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Texans vs. Patriots, while the over-under for total points scored is 40.5. New England is 174 on the money line (risking $174 to win $100). Before making any Texans vs. Patriots, be sure to check out the 2026 NFL Divisional Round predictions from SportsLine NFL expert Bruce Marshall.

For years Vegas-based Bruce Marshall was synonymous with The Gold Sheet, a popular sports betting newspaper. With a background in play-by-play and college sports experience, Bruce joined TGS in 1981 when he was hired by the legendary Mort Olshan and served as executive editor for many years. Marshall now offers his unique and colorful brand of football and basketball analysis to SportsLine members.

Marshall crushed his NFL picks, going 56-37-2 (+1494) in his last 95 NFL picks against spread picks. Now, Marshall has set his sights on the Texans vs. Patriots and recently closed his picks and predictions. You can head over to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are a few NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Texans:

Why the Patriots won

Second-year quarterback Drake Maye had an MVP-caliber season in New England. In 17 regular season games, he threw for 4,394 yards and 31 touchdowns with eight interceptions. He averaged 113.5. He also rushed for 450 yards and four touchdowns. In the Wild Card win over the Chargers, he threw for 268 yards and one touchdown, while rushing 10 times for 66 yards.

Also helping the offense are rookie running back Treveyon Henderson and veteran linebacker Rhamondre Stevenson. In 17 games, Henderson carried 180 times for 911 yards and nine touchdowns with six explosive plays of 20 yards or more, including a long of 69. Stevenson played in 14 games, rushing 130 times for 603 yards and seven touchdowns. Stevenson had seven explosive games, including a long 56. See which team will be back on SportsLine.

Why the Texans won

Third-year quarterback CJ Stroud helps lead Houston’s offense. In 14 games during the regular season, he threw for 3,041 yards with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He also rushed 48 times for 209 yards and one touchdown. In a 26-15 win over San Francisco on Oct. 26, completed 30 of 39 passes for 318 yards and two touchdowns with one interception.

Among his top targets is Dalton Schultz. The eight-year veteran played in 17 games, catching a career-high 82 passes for 777 yards (9.5 average) and three touchdowns. In a 40-20 win over Arizona on December 14, he caught eight passes for 76 yards and one touchdown. In a 36-29 win over Jacksonville on November 9, he caught seven passes for 53 yards and one touchdown. See which team to support on SportsLine.

How to make a Texans vs. Patriots

Marshall analyzed the Texans vs. Patriots from every possible angle. He leans on the Under in a perfect score and finds the X-factor that makes him jump all one side of the spread. He only shares what he is, and what side he will return to, at SportsLine.

Who wins Patriots vs. Texans, and what is the key X-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side the Texans vs. Patriots coverage you need to jump on, all from the 56-37-2 pro in his last 95 NFL picks, and find out.