It was a 3-3 game with 26 seconds left in the half, and New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye couldn’t find an open receiver. But he found a way.
So Maye started a run that was expected to gain only 13 yards, but he managed to take 37 from the Los Angeles Chargers’ 17-yard line. Two incompletions later, Andy Borregales kicked a 35-yard field goal to give the Pats a lead they would not relinquish in a 16-3 wild card victory.
Maye had more yards than expected — 24 — on the weekend, according to Next Gen Stats.
Maye’s running ability could be a factor on Sunday when the Patriots host the Houston Texans (3 pm ET, ABC/ESPN).
The Texans may be without their top receiver as Nico Collins recovers from a concussion, but Christian Kirk showed just how dangerous his speed can be with eight receptions for 144 yards and a touchdown in their win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Kirk turned in the two fastest times during wild card weekend as he hit 20.05 mph on a 46-yard reception and 19.64 mph on a 36-yard reception, according to Next Gen.
Here’s a look at some of Next Gen’s advanced metrics in analyzing all of this weekend’s divisional round games.
Saturday, 4:30 pm ET, CBS
Bills quarterback Josh Allen could find himself in danger Saturday — early and often — if he can’t find better protection against one of the NFL’s best pass rushers.
Allen was sacked on 24.5% of his pressure drops in the regular season, the fifth-highest rate in the league. That was his career-low triple mark of 8.2% since his MVP season in 2024. Meanwhile, the Broncos have produced the second-highest pressure rate (40.7%) of any defense this season. Those pressures were converted into sacks 23.9% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.
Josh Allen’s 10-yard scamper on 4th and inches upped the ante @BuffaloBills‘ gain chances by +49.9 percentage points (from 27.5% to 77.4%), the most win chances added to a QB sneak in the NGS era (since 2016).#BUFvsJAX | #BillsMafiapic.twitter.com/gCoST1pfwv
– Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 11, 2026
Denver allowed just 46 percent of completions when forcing pressures (seventh lowest), and the team’s +116.1 EPA against sacks was the best in the league. Edge rusher Nik Bonitto was especially strong, generating 80 pressures (tied for fourth most) and a 20.2% pressure rate. Bonitto and Micah Parsons are the only players with a 20% strikeout rate over 200 innings.
However, while Allen has been sacked at a higher rate this season than usual, he has been smart in the face of the rush. He averaged the fifth yards per attempt (8) and the fourth highest completion percentage (69.3%) among quarterbacks when pressured.
Broncos quarterback Bo Nix didn’t go the same way. Although he faced the third-lowest pressure rate among qualified quarterbacks (27.7%), Nix averaged just 3.7 yards per completion, the second-lowest number of any quarterback in 2018. The Bills’ defense wasn’t as destructive as the Broncos’ D this season, but it still had the 3rd-highest pressure in the league at 52%.
Saturday, 8pm ET, Fox
The 49ers and Seahawks split their season series, but the analytic advantage seems to fall the way of the top interest in the NFC.
Demarcus Robinson caught both a reception and a touchdown against Quinyon Mitchell in coverage @49ers‘ to open the drive (63 yards).
Mitchell allowed just one touchdown during the regular season.#SFvsPHI | #FTTBpic.twitter.com/i4TA7svPZc
– Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 11, 2026
Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold was tied for the most touchdowns down the field (19) this season and was pressured at the fourth-lowest rate among qualified quarterbacks (23%) on such throws. Additionally, Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a career-high 1,258 receiving yards. No other quarterback broke the 1,000-yard mark.
How does that compare to the 49ers’ combined defense? San Francisco had the second-lowest turnover rate (26.7%) in the league this season. The 49ers beat the Philadelphia Eagles last weekend to improve on a 16.2% pass rate — the lowest defensive rating in the wild card round since 2020.
There’s a reason the 49ers are here, though, and one could argue it starts with how well San Francisco protects quarterback Brock Purdy. He was one of two quarterbacks to average more than three seconds to throw this season. Purdy’s mark of 3.17 seconds was just a shade shorter than the Bears’ Caleb Williams (3.20 seconds). Purdy’s previous career long was almost second fastest: 2.93 seconds.
Sunday, 3pm ET, ESPN/ABC
One of the most intriguing matchups in the division could end up being Maye against Texans rookie two-time All-Pro Derek Stingley Jr. There is also some history there.
Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter combined for 15 pressures and 1.5 sacks, leading the Texans pass rush to produce a 45.9% pressure rate.
Aaron Rodgers hit a league-low 21.5% of his field goals during the regular season.@HoustonTexans | #HTTownMade pic.twitter.com/wJJSOv3Xlc
– Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 13, 2026
Maye threw his first touchdown pass against the Texans in 2024, a 40-yard score to Kayshon Boutte that beat Stingley’s coverage. In that game, Maye completed four passes for 56 yards and a touchdown while targeting Stingley five times.
In his second season, Maye blossomed into one of the league’s top quarterbacks and deep passers, completing 52.1% of his passes of 20 or more yards. And ever since that game against the Patriots last season, Stingley has been on a roll. He was screened 25 times and allowed just two completions for 86 yards and one touchdown. He has two interceptions in those games and 12 passes defensed. Stingley’s 8% completion percentage allowed is the lowest of any quarterback to face at least 15 deep targets during that span.
Maye can throw the deep ball, but will he have time to deal with the Texans’ excellent pass rush? Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. they have combined for 153 pressures this season, the most of any duo in the NFL. Meanwhile, Patriots tight end Will Campbell allowed pressure on 11.5% of his pass blocking snaps, the eighth-highest rate among left tackles with at least 200 pass blocks. Last weekend, he allowed six pressures and two sacks.
Sunday, 6:30 pm ET, NBC/Peacock
There was a reason the Rams were interested in adding wide receiver Davante Adams last season. His pairing with Puka Nacua has been very difficult.
Matthew Stafford’s 19-yard game-winning TD to Colby Parkinson has a completion rate of 27.3%, the second-best completion of the game, behind Bryce Young’s TD to Jalen Coker (19.7%) two minutes earlier.#LARvsCAR | #RamsHousepic.twitter.com/FkaOPmpT13
– Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 11, 2026
Adams’ six goal-line receptions (within the 3-yard line) are tied for the most by any player in a season since 2016 and Mike Evans in 2024. And that’s without Adams missing the final three weeks of the regular season. Nacua, meanwhile, has gained a league-high 473 rushing yards this season — the most by any player in a season since at least 2018.
Of course, it doesn’t hurt to have a guy who goes through them: Matthew Stafford. Against the blitz this season, Stafford had a league-high 32 touchdowns and just one interception. Offsetting that in the red zone, he had 24 touchdowns without an interception on 53 passes. Stafford had just 29 touchdowns against the blitz in his first four seasons with the Rams combined.
The Bears’ Williams is second this season in blitz touchdowns (17), but by a wide margin.
The Bears rookies — WR Luther Burden III and TE Colston Loveland — made a big impact in a surprising season. Burden produced 2.7 yards per route run this season, the second-most of any player in the Next Gen Stats era (routes in 200 minutes), trailing only Brown — then the Tennessee Titans — in 2019.
Loveland averaged 8.9 air yards per target this season, which is the fourth-highest mark among tight ends with at least 35 targets. In the wild card game against the Packers, he caught 4 of 8 field goals for 95 yards.
