NFL

Patriots vs. Texans odds, picks, predictions: The best NFL divisional round game bets

ballervisions 2026年1月17日

Patriots vs. Texans odds, picks, predictions: The best NFL divisional round game bets

The AFC East champion New England Patriots will host the Houston Texans on Sunday, with both teams out of the wild card round. The Texans rallied late for a 30-6 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, and New England did the same in a 16-3 win over the Los Angeles Chargers.

Can Drake Maye lead the Patriots to their first AFC Championship game appearance since Tom Brady? Will CJ Stroud – almost without top wide receiver Nico Collins – do enough to help the top defense?

Ben Fawkes has collected quotes from punters for every game and our team of NFL handicappers provide their favorite wagers on the game.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

What the oddsmakers say

“Right now the Patriots are sitting at 3. No movement in the spread this time. The total opened 42.5, now it’s down to 41 here. Even though Stroud turned the ball over against the Steelers, it was Houston’s defense that carried that game. I thought New England’s defense was also impressive against the Chargers. – Thomas Gable, sports book director at The Borgata

“Both are coming off games where defenses shine. So far the action has been more balanced than expected, more action for the Patriots. Sharp action for New England.” – Joey Feazel, head of NFL trading at Caesars Sportsbook

A very good bet

Matt Russell: Stroud wasn’t running for his life in Pittsburgh, but seeing as how he was overwhelmed in the pocket at times, maybe he should have been?

Stroud started the season using his legs, rushing for more than 20 yards per game in the first seven games of the season, and with two carries of 12 yards, he appeared to be headed for 20 before facing the Broncos in Week 8. After returning, Stroud’s running ability took a back seat, but if ever there was a reminder that his internal tapedown count should include Monday’s game.

If Stroud looked back at the Chargers-Patriots wild-card game, he might have seen tight coverage from New England, which caused Chargers QB Justin Herbert to rush it and go, with 10 total attempts for 57 yards.

Now deep into the playoffs, it’s time for Stroud to tap into his hacking skills to extend a drive or two.

Bet: Over 10.5 yards rushing (-120)

Matt Jacob: Q: What are the only teams to score more than 20 points against the Houston Texans this season?

Answer: Seattle, Jacksonville, Las Vegas and Indianapolis.

Ironically, Houston won three of those games, all at home (36-29 vs. Jaguars; 23-21 vs. Raiders; and 38-30 vs. the Colts at the end of the regular season). The only time the Texans have allowed more than 20 points on the road? A 27-19 loss to Seattle in Week 7.

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Since that contest, Houston has hit the road six times and has given up 13 points (Tennessee), 16 (Indy), 10 (Kansas City), 16 (Chargers) and 6 (Pittsburgh). And in their first three road games of 2025, the Texans have held the Rams (14), Jaguars (17) and Ravens (10) to five touchdowns and a combined 41 points.

Now comes a trip to New England to face a Patriots team that managed 16 points in last week’s Wild Card win against the visiting Chargers. In that contest, the Pats wasted a lot of scoring opportunities against a really good defense – but not even close to Houston’s level.

Bottom line: New England could pull out a win this time, but they won’t because the offense explodes with three-plus touchdowns.

Bet: Patriots under 20.5 total points (+110)

Ed Feng: This game is about an up and coming QB in Maye against the best defense in the NFL. In my adjusted passer rating, Maye is expected to be 8.2% better than the league average. Houston is the best in pass protection and is projected to perform 8.3% better than the league average in passer rating.

In my best-member model, I threw out New England’s preseason earlier because Maye’s performance made it irrelevant. I’m still covering preseason games for all the other teams. My best prediction is New England at 3.8 points at home.

If you consider only the data of the current season, Houston, behind the strength of its defense, is rated slightly higher than New England. This would make New England a 2-point favorite.

Houston wide receiver Nico Collins appears unlikely to play after being carted off the field in Pittsburgh with a concussion. If Stroud can be effective without Collins, Houston is probably the right side based on current season data.

Lean: Houston +3