Waking up to the news that the Rays traded Josh Lowe was bittersweet.
The first thing I wrote for DRaysBay was how excited I was about Josh Lowe getting ready for the 2023 season. The combination of power and speed was exciting at the time, and the data suggests that all he needed was a chance. Fast forward almost three years later, and I still think Josh Lowe can be an everyday ML player. I am happy for him that he will get that opportunity with the Angels.
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With that said, let’s take a look at the Rays 2026 outlook.
The short-term impact of trade
I’m excited about the path to playing time this is providing for Jacob Melton. Jacob Melton (and later the Rays OF production and offense as a whole) could be a big winner in this job.
I’ve written about Melton before, but the summary of what we should expect from him is that he offers plus power, speed, and defense at all three positions with enough of a hit tool to make him an above-average everyday player. Melton will have an even greater chance to win a roster spot during spring training.
The Rays also got a one-year shortstop in Gavin Lux – a potential buyout before Jadher Areinamo is ready to take over the everyday 2B role in 2027. Lux seems like a safe bet if he gets an ACL tear in 2023, but his profile might be a little thin against the likes of Richho. suffered knee-related injuries). But Lux is out of options, so I expect him to be on the Opening Day roster in some sort of role that includes reps at second base. Palacios still has one year left in his option, so he may be on the outside looking in this spring.
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Lux has been an almost average producer for his career. He pairs below-average power with an above-average hit tool to provide value in multiple areas. The purchase of Lux continues a trend we’ve seen this offseason where the Rays have relied heavily on bat-to-ball ability, perhaps at the expense of power and impact.
The second base depth chart took a big hit when Brandon Lowe was traded, but it looks to be in a better place now with Lux. I think freshman Brett Wisely may not have a roster spot when the music stops at the end of spring training. He is probably behind both Lux and Palacios on the depth chart as a LH reliever who can play a good second base. Wisely, there are also no options, so he won’t even make it to AAA to serve as depth.
The long-term impact of trade
This trade is not limited to Melton and Lux. I think the biggest target in this trade was Chris Clark.
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Clark is a low slot RHP with a fastball that sits in the low 90s and can touch 95-96 at times. He’s 6’4, so his low release height relative to his frame combined with above-average extension adds a layer of deception that helps his stuff play out a little. He mostly uses an average seam-seam fastball in the zone, and flashes four-seam variations of whiffs over the zone.
Clark’s best pitch is his low 80s breaking ball. It’s an above-average pitch that he’s comfortable throwing to both sides of the plate and has good feel. Clark also displayed a mid-80s offspeed pitch that looked like a split or kick grip with an above-average vertical separation from his fastball. While it may not be a viable offering right now, I think it could be above average upside someday if he can continue to refine his command and maybe find a way to add velocity separation to the fastball (that could mean adding more heat to the fastball or removing some of the offspeed pitch).
The command and control throughout Clark’s arsenal looks mediocre and he’s not currently producing a ton of swings and misses, so he fits the profile of a back-end starter right now; however, if he continues to develop his offspeed pitch or adds a cutter to cover his fastball and breaking ball formation, I could see a middle rotation starter. His rotational feel reflected in his breaking ball suggests that the cutter could be an easy addition to his toolbox.
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Either way, Clark doesn’t appear to be in much of a risk to release as there is room to add velocity, more pitches, and even refine his command.
The conclusion
The Rays traded up from a big-money position at the major league level to get a power prospect they may have coveted while simultaneously closing a gap at second base in the short term.
Interestingly, Gavin Lux is essentially Richie Palacios without the options, as he has similar power, plate abilities, and versatility in defense.
Chris Clark is a bit of a burnout development project for Winston Doom and his team, but I think if we squint, we can see a potential starter in the rotation with some interesting output and a strong secondary fit.
