The Los Angeles Rams will play the Chicago Bears on Sunday at Soldier Field in a game that will be played in freezing temperatures. They’ll be facing a defense that leads the NFL in blocking, and a quarterback that has seen a drop in form (not to be read as bad play).
Back in 2018 on their way to the Super Bowl, the Rams went up against one of the best defenses in the NFL at the time in the Dallas Cowboys. However, head coach Sean McVay called for 39 runs between CJ Anderson and Todd Gurley on 28 passes from Jared Goff. Anderson and Gurley rushed for 238 yards between them and three touchdowns as the Rams won 30-22.
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It was the old Kyle Shanahan mentality of “We’ll run it until you show you can stop it.” On that day, the Cowboys couldn’t stop the Rams’ rushing attack led by the best blocking offensive line in the NFL. The opening two drives of that game were a combined 27 plays and lasted 12:39 p.m. Of those 27 games, 15 of them were runs. While that only resulted in six points, it set the tone for a game in which the Rams had more than 36 minutes of possession.
If the Rams are going to beat the Bears, they will need a repeat of what happened seven years ago. A common theme from that 2018 Rams team is that this one has a blocking offensive line and two leading running backs. As ESPN’s Benjamin Solak recently wrote,
“According to NFL Next Gen Stats, those 2018 and 2025 offenses are the only two rushing offenses since 2016 with a success rate above 50% on carries by running backs. The 2018 team was at 50.13%, while the 2025 Rams are at 2025 on the right behind 50.12%. No cheeky scrambles, no quarterback runs and read options – clean handoffs to the back. “
One of the biggest criticisms of McVay is that he tends to shy away from the run game. That criticism is overblown, but it’s also not true. This season, the Rams had the fourth-highest pass rush rate in the NFL. Only three teams higher than them missed the play-offs. The Rams’ 58.5 percent passing percentage is the highest since 2021. It currently has a pass rate that is four percent higher than expected and higher than 2021 when it was three percent.
The Rams’ passing rate is higher than expected
With Matthew Stafford playing as well as he has this season and Puka Nacua having an off year, it makes sense to put the ball in the hands of your best players. While the Rams leaned on the running game to pick up another win in Week 5, they fumbled on a goal-line fumble and fumbled on fourth down to end the game.
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However, the Rams have one of the best running games of the last decade. Those teams of 2018 and 2025 are structured in the same way. They look different in the way things are done, but this is a team that relies on the run game and pass game like they did in McVay’s early years. It was that running game that paved the way for the Rams to make the Super Bowl and it will be the same this year if they make it that far. It’s something McVay needs to accept.
Several times this season, McVay has given up on the run game when working. Back in Week 13, Blake Corum and Kyren Williams averaged 7.7 yards per carry. They only touched the ball 20 times. Williams averaged more than seven yards per carry against the Falcons while Stafford threw three touchdowns. The Rams running back had 13 carries in the game.
That insistence on sticking to the passing game while the quarterback was struggling almost cost the Rams last week. With Stafford struggling in the third quarter and after a 17-7 lead, McVay threw 16 passes for eight runs. At that time, the rams were more than five meters each carry.
This was a place where the Rams should have been able to dominate Carolina. During the regular season, the Panthers allowed 4.4 yards per carry which was 11th-highest in the NFL. The Panthers can be exploited on the ground. However, the Rams continued to throw the ball with their quarterback who hadn’t been heard from in a long time. Stafford got back into rhythm in the fourth quarter, but it’s still odd that the signal caller didn’t do more to help the run game. As Solak wrote,
“In the 2025 season, the Rams’ ground game has once again become an understandable thought…The passing game is the story of modern football, and as such, it is the story of the 2025 Rams…the running game is the foundation of this terrible Rams offense – in 2025 with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum as it was in 2018 out of Gurley in 2018 … when the Rams won the Super Bowl, the flow of offensive ideas, the Rams won games in the air, and the running game was especially present in that effort in 2025, the contour of the Rams offense returned to its 2018 form.
Much has been said this week about Stafford’s performance in cold weather. Much of that is overblown, but it also doesn’t mean McVay shouldn’t do what he can to help his quarterback. There’s no denying that Stafford has been on the heater to start the year. Stafford often has those types of streaks and has started to slowly come back on track. That doesn’t mean he played badly. He has thrown 19 touchdowns in seven receptions since Week 13 while averaging 311 yards per game.
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However, his quality has been more unstable than in the first three months of the season. Some of that has to do with not having Davante Adams and being without Kevin Dotson. It’s also not the only reason Stafford went from having the fourth-best turnover-ready average at 1.9 percent to the fourth-worst at 4.7 percent.
Like last week, on paper, the Rams have the advantage in the run game. Kyren Williams has rushed for more than 60 yards in 13 games this season as the Rams are averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Meanwhile, the Bears’ defense is allowing the fourth-most 5.0 yards per carry and 14 running backs have had 60 yards or more.
The Rams have a 50.1 percent rushing success rate on offense this season which is the best in the NFL by a wide margin. In fact, the gap between the Rams at No. 1 and the Buffalo Bills at No. 2 is 46.6 percent greater than the gap between the Bills at No. 2 and the Green Bay Packers at No. 9.
Meanwhile, the Bears have allowed the 44th highest rushing percentage in the NFL at 27 percent. They also allowed the sixth-highest strikeout rate of the season. With Corum, the Rams have the ninth most explosive running game in the NFL with an explosive rate of 5.2 percent.
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That sets up a passing game where the Bears are third-worst in defense under center. Stafford has been one of the best quarterbacks in play action under center this season. He threw for 1,735 yards with 24 touchdowns in one season. His 127.4 passer rating ranked fourth in the NFL.
If McVay gets a pass against the Bears in what should be a shootout, the Rams will be playing into Dennis Allen’s hands. The Rams can’t over-target Davante Adams 13 times like last week and only have him catch five passes.
This is not running the ball for the sake of running it. However, in a cold-weather game, against a defense that leads the NFL in penetration and struggles to defend the run-and-play action, it makes sense. That’s before he talks about Stafford’s recent slump in form or his bruised finger on his throwing hand. Riding Williams and Corum to the NFC Championship and keeping it simple for Stafford is a recipe for success. The question is not whether or not it will work, but if McVay can commit to it.
