NFL

After Black Monday: What happened to the “hot seat” coaches before the season?

ballervisions 2026年1月17日

Black Monday has come and gone, and nine teams are looking for new coaches. But how do those moves compare to preseason “hot seat” picks?

In July of last year, Sportsbetting.ag published the odds on which NFL coach would be fired first in 2025. That dubious distinction eventually went to Brian Callahan of Tennessee who took the honors in 2025.

At the time these issues were published, Mdondoshiya’s Brian Daboll was listed as the most likely coach to be fired, but he ended up coming in second. His dismissal may end up biting the bulls twice every year as he will join the Eagles OC.

So how did some of those preseason rumors do this year? Here’s a rundown of what’s happened to each head coach since the first chances were released.

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Level	Coach	The team	Opportunities	The situation
1	Brian Daboll	NYG	4/1	The second coach was fired. A 2-8 start and several fourth quarter collapses sealed the deal.
2	Mike McDaniel	MIA	5/1	Maybe three talented players on that list, enough to win games with them.
3	Shane Steichen	IND	6/1	Surprise of the year: Daniel Jones can play football. But without Jones, the Colts went 0-7.
4	Kevin Stefanski	CLE	13/2	The ongoing QB drama has been very evident for the two-time coach of the year.
5	Jonathan Gannon	ARI	7/1	Warning to Dallas: Couldn’t fix defense, finished 10th in EPA/playoff in each of his three seasons.
6	Zac Taylor	CIN	8/1	All other teams in this division are all looking for new coaches, 6-11 Bengals veterans.
7	Dave Canales	THE CAR	9/1	A surprise playoff participant.
8	Brian Callahan	TEN	10/1	He ended up being the first coach to be fired. A 1-5 start to the season and a 4-19 overall record.
9	Kyle Shanahan	SF	16/1	One of the most injured teams is coming off a 12-5 record. COTY candidate.
10	Todd Bowles	TB	22/1	Close one for Bowles, who missed the postseason for the first time in four years.
11	Matt LaFleur	GB	25/1	The season ended with four straight losses as another defense found out what life was like without Micah.
11	Mike Tomlin	The PIT	25/1	He stepped down from his role after going 0-6 in the playoffs over the past nine seasons.
11	Sean McVay	LA	25/1	As secure as LA will ever be.
14	Kevin O’Connell	MIN	40/1	He may not be able to afford another season that ends outside the playoffs.
14	Raheem Morris	ATL	40/1	Two consecutive 8-9 seasons spelled the end for Morris.
16	Demeco Ryans	HOU	50/1	Three winning seasons, three playoffs, three stops in the divisional round.
16	Sean McDermott	BUF	50/1	9 seasons, 8 of which were with Josh Allen, but no Super Bowl anywhere.
18	John Harbaugh	BAL	66/1	The surprise ends in Baltimore.
18	Mike Macdonald	THE SEA	66/1	Can DeMarcus Lawrence get a Super Bowl ring?
18	Sean Payton	DEN	66/1	Payton looks to be with the Broncos for the next few years.
21	Ben Johnson	CHI	100/1	Nkomo didn’t even want to talk to him and he played them for one year.
21	Brian Schottenheimer	DAL	100/1	No. 2 offense in yards, No. 30 defensive yards allowed. Not the consistent football we were promised.
21	Dan Campbell	DET	100/1	Losing two coordinators in one year (Ben Johnson, Aaron Glenn) proved too much.
21	Dan Quinn	IT WAS SO	100/1	Injuries are down in 2025, but expectations are high in 2026. Is it too high?
21	Jim Harbaugh	LAC	100/1	Can the Chargers do more than just lose in the wild card round?
26	Aaron Glenn	The NYJ	150/1	There was a lot of hope going into the season, followed by a bad awakening. Now the No. 2 is waiting.
26	Kellen Moore	NO	150/1	A tough job, but our boy did well, finishing 4-1 after starting 2-10.
26	Liam Cohen	JAX	150/1	It forced him to switch to GM when he was hired, a bold move that paid off handsomely.
29	Pete Carroll	LV	200/1	One-and-done in Vegas, but at least he gave them the No. 1 pick in the draft.
30	Mike Vrabel	NE	250/1	It took the Pats from 4-13 to 14-3. History in NE as a player makes him safe for years to come.
31	Andy Reid	KC	500/1	What happens if Mahomes doesn’t return in time for 2026?
31	Nick Sirianni	PHI	500/1	Nobody seems happy in Philly, and surprisingly, it sounds like Sirianni is doing everything he can to keep it that way.

On this list, it looks like the preseason odds were a pretty good early indicator of what’s to come during and after the season. The obvious surprise on this list is Pete Carrol, who went to Vegas with high expectations but only managed to win three games.

The Cowboys stumbled to their second seven-win season in two years. It’s hard to imagine the Cowboys settling for another disappointing season, regardless of the circumstances. Brian Schottenheimer probably needs to make the playoffs next season to be completely safe. But isn’t a winning record enough? Or should it be a playoff win, or maybe two? Or are you safe no matter what?

What do you think the Cowboys need to get in 2026 for Shotty to get a third year in Dallas?