The two-time defending champions have done it again. The Dodgers are said to be in agreement Kyle Tucker for a four-year, $240MM contract. The deal includes $30MM in deferrals and will come to an estimated annual value of $57.1MM for luxury tax purposes. Tucker, an Excel Sports Management client, is getting a $64MM signing bonus — all but $10MM up front — and can opt out after the second or third season. The team has not officially announced the signing, which is pending, and will have to create a 40-man roster spot once it becomes official.
Tucker, who turns 29 on Saturday, is the latest star addition to what was already MLB’s most feared offense. You enter the list of players on the side Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernández again Tommy Edman. He will join Hernández once Andy Pages as forwards, Edman can cut in the middle of the field when he is not in the second position.
Los Angeles has four outfield prospects that stand out near the top of their farm system. It is said that they wanted to avoid closing long-term commitments as a result. They accomplished that in arguably the greatest year in sports history.
It’s an average of $60MM more. Without adjusting for the postponement, Tucker’s deal would be the second-highest AAV ever. Ohtani earned a $70MM AAV for his 10-year, $700MM guarantee, though a significant deferral meant he had a “true” annual value closer to $46MM. So one should look at the annual salary of $51MM open This is Juan Soto’s place 15 years, $765M will serve as the more accurate record holder until tonight. Tucker’s adjusted AAV beats that by more than $6MM.
Although Tucker was a free agent this offseason, he is a clear step below the likes Aaron is the judgethe Ohtani and Soto of the past three winters. Tucker was a versatile All-Star a little outside the top tier of stars. The fifth overall pick by the Astros in 2015, he came through the shortened 2020 season after hitting the big leagues the previous two years. He connected on 29 or 30 home runs in his first three full campaigns, improving his streak along the way.
Tucker was already a top player and appeared to be on his way to closing in on Judge, Soto and Ohtani for a strong start to the 2024 season. He was hitting .266/.395/.584 with more walks than hits in the first two months. He hit the ball on his right leg and was placed on the injured list with what the Astros initially called a shin contusion. It was very serious as the subsequent tests revealed that he had not played for three months.
The four-time All-Star didn’t come back too bad and had a great September. The Astros however decided to make trade calls after the season. They wouldn’t meet Tucker’s asking price in an extension and feel they can cash him in for help elsewhere on the roster. They made a deal with the Cubs about the Winter Meetings that they sent Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneskiand hope Cam Smith to Houston in Tucker’s final year of arbitration.
Tucker’s one season in Chicago had its ups and downs. He’s off to another torrid start, sporting a .284/.359/.524 slash and 12 homers on the first day of June. He jammed his right thumb into second on the stolen base attempt that day. He avoided the injury list, but subsequent tests revealed that he suffered a small fracture at the top of his hand between his ring and pinky fingers.
The hand injury was not considered a serious problem until Tucker’s performance began to suffer. That didn’t happen right away. His next few weeks were his best of the season, in fact. Tucker slashed .311/.404/.578 in 25 games that month. Things took a turn for the worse in July, as he hit .189/.325/.235 with just one home run over the next six weeks.
The presence of hair breakage was not reported until mid-August. Cubs officials acknowledged that Tucker was injured in June but said he was still healthy when the injury was made public. Perhaps the thumb became a recurring explanation for what was a simple breakdown, although he may have had some subtle bad habits in June as he tried to ease the pain of a blowout during the break. Manager Craig Counsell gave Tucker a three-game mental overhaul in late August before plugging him back into the middle of the lineup.
Tucker appeared to be back on track when he hit another speed bump. He sprained his left calf in early September and went on the injured list, costing him three weeks in the final month of the season. He finished the regular season with a .266/.377/.464 line in less than 600 trips to the plate. He hit .259 with one homer in eight postseason games as the Cubs advanced to the NL Division Series.
An uneven second half soured some Cubs fans on Tucker’s acquisition. His overall numbers were in line with his career grades. The offense was 36 percent better than league average in wRC+. His lifetime .273/.358/.507 batting line is 38 points above the division. Tucker has been in that range in four of the past five seasons. The only difference is his .289/.408/.585 showing over 78 games over the last two years.
The ’24 season is probably an outlier, but the Dodgers should feel they are adding one of the top 10-15 hitters in MLB. He doesn’t extend the strike zone and has a rare combination of contact skills and above-average power. Tucker has no problem hitting pitchers with either hand. He doesn’t have the exit velocity of the best sluggers in the sport, yet he is a safe bet for 25-30 homers in a healthy season.
Tucker’s glove isn’t that strong at this stage of his career. He won a Gold Glove with Houston in 2022. His defensive grades and running speed have declined as he enters his mid-20s. That may give teams pause when considering long-term investments. Tucker’s defense should remain effective in the short term. The Dodgers could plug him in right field and kick Hernández to left if they don’t trade him.
The Cubs offered Tucker a fair offer but made little effort to keep him. Bidding appears to be coming down to the Dodgers, Mets and Blue Jays. New York was also reluctant to make a long-term commitment, reportedly offering a four-year deal worth $55MM per season. Toronto seemed poised to entertain long term at a low annual rate.
Tucker is LA’s second eligible player to sign this offseason. They came Edwin Díaz for a three-year, $69MM deal at the Winter Meetings. They gave up their second- and fifth-round draft picks this summer, as well as $1MM in their 2027 international bonus pool, to sign Díaz. They will lose their third and sixth round picks to Tucker. The Cubs receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round (currently scheduled to land 77th).
MLBTR had predicted an 11-year, $400MM deal for Tucker at the start of the season. It is not clear whether there is a group that was willing to go to that group. He gives up some measure of long-term security for big paydays over the next few seasons and the chance to return to free agency at the end of his first day.
He’ll have the option to re-evaluate the market before his age-31 and age-32 campaigns — and without being attached to a draft compensation barring a change to the qualifying offer rules in an intervening CBA. A five or six year guarantee would be in the middle of that period. He’ll collect a huge signing bonus, shatter the average hitting record for the season, and join the team with the best chance to win the World Series yet.
Although a specific salary breakdown has not been reported, the Dodgers are reportedly paying a $54MM signing bonus right away. RosterResource estimates their payroll obligations to be close to $428MM next season. Tucker’s $57.1MM AAV would push their competitive balance sheet north of $395MM.
They are taxed at a 110% rate on spending over $304MM, so Tucker’s deal comes with a staggering $62.81MM tax in the first season. The Dodgers actually value Tucker The 2026 season alone at $120MM. LA ended last season with $417MM in luxury tax revenue, which cost another $169.4MM in taxes. Their tax bill alone was higher than the last 12 teams’ salary figures. They’re headed for a similar or possibly even bigger number in 2026 depending on what else they do this offseason and at the trade deadline. The frenzy continues as they aim for the first three-peat in MLB since the 1998-2000 Yankees.
Tucker’s deal would be the latest example of many fans and small-market owners vying for pay in the upcoming round of collective bargaining negotiations. This level of spending also confirms why the MLB Players Association is adamant that the cap not start. Next season’s CBA negotiations are expected to be just as or more contentious than those that halted sports for 99 days during the 2022-23 lockout.
That’s not a concern for the Dodgers or their fans, who will be happy to add another star as they try to consolidate their strong run. They will be heavy favorites in the NL West, and it’s hard to imagine a scenario where this team doesn’t make the playoffs. However, the championship is not guaranteed. The Jays came out on top in defeating them in Games 6 and 7 of last year’s World Series. The second quarter is on Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s run home or another few meters This is Ernie Clement’s place A fly ball in the bottom of the ninth would have changed the outcome. LA’s ownership and front office don’t get comfortable.
After the loss to Tucker, the Jays seemed likely to re-team with him Bo Bichette. Their longtime shortstop is now the top undrafted player. He reportedly had a good meeting with the Phillies, but the Jays and Bichette have long expressed interest in meeting. Bichette won’t suit up for the Mets, but he can challenge the Yankees. Cody Bellinger. The Mets are still without a left fielder after the trade Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien. Their reported offer to Tucker shows there is plenty of short-term spending space, but president of baseball operations David Stearns has shied away from long-term commitments this winter.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that Tucker was signing with the Dodgers. Jon Heyman of the New York Post had it as a short-term contract, and Robert Murray of FanSided was the first on a four-year, $240MM guarantee. Murray reported out after the second season, while Passan had a third year out. Heyman reported $30MM for the postponement. Ari Alexander of Boston 7 News was first at $57.1MM after the AAV reversal. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers had the details on the signing bonus.
Photo courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Images.
