The AFC West champion Denver Broncos will host the Buffalo Bills this Saturday, as Buffalo advanced with a hard-fought 27-24 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the wild card round while the Broncos sit back and watch at home as the conference’s top seed.
Josh Allen, who was already dealing with foot injuries, suffered several injuries in the game, and the Bills also lost wide receivers Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis for the season during the contest.
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Is Allen and Co. will they take the next step on the road to that elusive Super Bowl trip? Or will Sean Payton, Bo Nix and Denver’s formidable defense bring them one step closer to their first Super Bowl appearance since 2016?
Ben Fawkes has collected quotes from punters for every game and our team of NFL handicappers provide their favorite wagers on the game.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
What the oddsmakers say
“We opened this game Bills -2, total 46.5. We’re pick-em right now, some places have Denver -1. It’s definitely been the first money for Denver. I don’t think Buffalo is at the San Francisco level of injuries, but it’s getting up there. The previous money held +2, +1.5 for Denver. Total put half a point, 46 down, 46 put a mark down here. public debt money” – Thomas Gable, sports book director at The Borgata
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“We opened the Bills -1.5, now the Bills -1 (WITH). My power ratings have the Broncos -0.5. In this type of game, the Bills have playoff experience, which we’ve seen make the difference. As far as big one-sided games, it’s going to be this one. The Bills get most of the action” – Joey Feazel, head of NFL trading at Caesars Sportsbook
A very good bet
Matt Jacob: Last week, the 2025 NFL rushing champion (Buffalo’s James Cook) faced the league’s No. 1 defense (Jacksonville). Suffice it to say, it wasn’t a fair fight: The Jaguars held Cook to 46 yards on 15 carries (a paltry 3.1 yards per tote).
Thanks to Josh Allen’s heroics, the Bills escaped Jacksonville with a win and now head back on the road, this time to Denver. And greeting Cook will be the NFL’s No. 2-ranked run defense.
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The Broncos gave up 91.1 rushing yards per game (only 4.5 yards more than Jacksonville) and held their opponents to just 3.87 yards per carry (tied for second best in the league).
In the past six regular-season games, only three players have tallied more than 50 rushing yards against Denver: Chargers backup quarterback Trey Lance (69 yards in Week 18); Packers running back Josh Jacobs (73 yards in Week 15); and Commander back quarterback Marcus Mariota (55 yards in Week 13)
Take out Lance and Mariota, and only five running backs have surpassed 50 rushing yards against the Broncos since Week 4 (14 games): Jacobs; rookies Ashton Jeanty and Cam Skattebo (60 yards each); and Kareem Hunt and Breece Hall (59 yards each).
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He’s the only player with 75 rushing yards against Denver all season? Colts’ Jonathan Taylor (165 yards in Week 2).
Bet: James Cook under 75.5 rushing yards (-115)
Jacob: In his final regular season game against the Chargers, Denver quarterback Bo Nix put the ball in the air a season-low 23 times. It made perfect sense, as the Chargers started a bunch of backups on both sides of the ball and the Broncos won 19-3.
Why put a franchise quarterback at unnecessary risk in a one-sided game, right?
Of course, Denver coach Sean Payton would love nothing more than to see the same scenario play out Saturday against Buffalo, with his troops jumping forward and the offense heavily dependent on the run game. It just won’t happen.
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Because they have struggled to defend the run, I expect the Bills to load the box and force Nix to beat them with his arm. Next, I expect Payton to let his young quarterback explode — because he has all season.
Let’s put it this way: Before the finals against the Chargers, Nix had thrown at least 34 passes in six straight games (and averaged 39.8 per contest). And going back to the Week 4 home race at Cincinnati, Nix has wiped out 33 of 10 pass attempts in his last 14 games.
With good weather expected in Denver, the Nix should pitch at least 34 times in what figures to be a close game.
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Bet: Bo Nix over 33.5 pass attempts (+100)
Russell: While the Broncos’ offense improved after their Week 12, Denver’s defense regressed, with stretches where they were 21st in EPA/Play (adjusted for turnovers and garbage time). What that means for the Bills is that Josh Allen has to be able to move the ball through the air.
However, Allen’s drop in deep threats, and a tight end against the Broncos’ pass rush seems like a bad idea. Check out the safety net, under throws to his tailbacks, tight ends and Khalil Shakir. With the market tipping in the Broncos’ favor, at least a close game script could improve Allen’s chances for a high-volume afternoon — and a game where they’re trailing will protect it.
Bet: Josh Allen is over 19.5 passes
