The Buffalo Bills travel to Denver on Saturday to play the Broncos in the first round.
Matt Bowen breaks down the matchup, looks at strategic trends and staff, and offers his take, and Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody and Seth Walder share their best bets, analysis and DFS plays to help you get in on the action.
Note: Odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
When the Bills have the ball
Bowen: The Bills will see Denver’s elite defense play a league-high 60.8% of pass rushers, so coordinator Joe Brady will need answers here to create defined targets and get the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands at a rapid rate. Look for some crosses and throws underneath, or the Bills will take their shots down the field on the perimeter one-on-one. As usual with Buffalo, the running game remains an important part of the offensive script, which means James Cook III’s volume.
Edge: The Broncos
Best bet: Dalton Kincaid over 3.5 receptions (+117): Given the defensive tendencies of the Broncos’ defense, Kincaid will be Allen’s primary target for throws over the middle of the field while serving as an exit/drop zone against pressure.
When the Broncos have the ball
Bowen: We know what the Bills are from a defensive standpoint, we play with discipline and zone eyes in their different safety combinations. Look for Sean Payton to set up concepts here, creating zone voids for quarterback Bo Nix to deliver the ball in rhythm. The Broncos can generate production through the running game against a Buffalo defense that has struggled to limit opposing rushers.
Edge: The Broncos
Best bet: RJ Harvey over 54.5 rushing yards (-114): Harvey has seen at least 14 carries in four of his last five games, so let’s play strong volume against a Bills defense that has allowed 5.1 YPC this season (third most).
Staff picks, best bets and props
Total score UNDER 45.5 (-108)
Maldonado: Denver leads the league in defensive efficiency and allows the lowest rate of touchdowns in the league. Buffalo moves the ball well, but Denver’s ability to generate pressure slows down and shortens drives. On the other hand, the Broncos’ offense is near the bottom in touchdowns per drive, scoring at the third-highest rate behind only Cleveland and Tennessee, and relies on defense to keep games close. This should be a controlled, low-variance game that stays under.
Josh Allen OVER 0.5 INTs (+139)
Walder: Allen’s 1.7% interception rate this season is middle-of-the-road, ranking 14th among QBR-eligible quarterbacks. That can still lead to this kind of compounding number where certain conditions are taken into account — but not those conditions! The Bills are slight underdogs, and they’re up against a great defense in Denver. Also, because the Broncos are so good at stopping the run, the Bills may have to go with a much heavier script than they might otherwise have.
Bo Nix’s longest rush OVER 12.5 yards (-115)
Loza: Nix relies on his legs, especially when the passing game breaks up, averaging nearly 21 rushing yards per contest during the regular season. Those stats will translate into a solid number of rushing attempts Saturday for Denver’s QB. Nix recorded seven runs of 13 yards or more (tied with Jalen Hurts for 10th most among QBs). Buffalo’s biggest defensive weakness remains its inability to stop the run, as it allowed just five rushing yards against QBs in the regular season. Additionally, the Bills defense gave up the most rushing by a QB of 13 or more yards (11) in 2025 and gave up an 18-yard rush to Trevor Lawrence last weekend.
RJ Harvey OVER 54.5 rushing yards (-114)
Moody: The Bills have struggled defensively this season, especially against the run, allowing 137.2 rushing yards per game, fifth most in the league. With Denver’s offensive line finishing the regular season ranked fourth in rushing yards, Harvey should be in a good position to take advantage. The comparison is encouraging, as Travis Etienne Jr. rushed for 67 yards against Buffalo in last week’s wild card round.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Loza’s recommendations
Captain (gets 1.5x legend points): Last week, Josh Allen ($18,000) led the Bills to their first postseason road victory since 1992. He cannot be avoided. And it’s worth every penny.
Also on my list: Pat Bryant ($6,000). Value selection here. Nix’s ability to spread the ball has become a common frustration for fantasy fans. Still, Bryant appeared to be frog-marching Troy Franklin on the floor, averaging six looks per healthy game from Week 13 so far. He also drew at least one red zone look in every game played from Week 11 through the end of the regular season. Sean Payton said in a recent post that he plans to be “aggressive” against Buffalo, suggesting the electric slot receiver should remain heavily involved.
Maldonado’s recommendations
Captain (gets 1.5x legend points): Allen ($18,000). Even if Denver limits touchdowns, Allen’s quick fit, third-down conversions and red-zone involvement keep his floor strong.
Also on my list: Broncos D/ST ($3,800). Denver’s defense has a high success rate, a league-low touchdown rate allowed per drive and a high level of pressure even without a blitz. They force punts, force punts and create legendary value without needing a turnover.
Walder’s recommendations
DFS Captain (gets 1.5x legend points): RJ Harvey ($14,400). On paper, this should be a big game for Harvey, given Buffalo’s flaws against the run. It comes from the tendency of the opponents, too. The teams playing for the Bills recorded an 8% worse pass rate than expected, the second lowest among all defenses, according to NFL Next Gen statistics. That’s a long way of saying Harvey should be in the big game.
Also on my list: Dalton Kincaid ($6,400). My intuition tells me that the Broncos won this game, and that means that at some point the Bills will be playing catchup. The result? Lots of pass attempts from Allen — and I don’t think they’ll be thrown Pat Surtain II’s way. Kincaid is a more logical target.
