Valdez’s market grew slower than some expected, perhaps due to his age and mileage, a reasonable offer attached to him and a controversial deal with his catcher late last season. But with other top arms like Dylan Cease, Ranger Suárez and Michael King off the board, calls for Valdez’s services will now be intense.
Valdez would help any club looking for a quality arm, but he has often been linked to the Orioles, Giants, Mets and Cubs in media reports. (It’s possible that, in light of signing Alex Bregman, the Cubs are done making big free agent splashes, but we’ll keep them here for the purpose of this app. And while the Mets have chosen to avoid giving long-term deals to starting pitchers in recent years, the reported signing of Bo Bichette does nothing to address the lack of certainty in their rotation.)
Among those competing, where would he make the biggest impact?
As a left-handed, groundball-producing machine who relies more on the defense behind him than the aces who hit hard, his position is more important than a pitcher like Cease.
To check where it fits, let’s consider a few variables.
Valdez is an extremely low ball pitcher. His 62% ground ball mark since 2021 ranks fourth among professional arms. He leads baseball in double games produced since 2021.
To get the most out of Valdez, the team must field a strong defense in the field.
The Cubs have a superior infield defense between Valdez’s bigs thanks to the elite gloves of Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Matt Shaw and now Alex Bregman added to the mix.
With Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average last season, the Cubs played a key role in maximizing Valdez’s unique ability to attract ground balls.
The Cubs’ infield defense compiled a +11 OAA last season (12th in MLB), and a +66 DRS mark (2nd in MLB). The next-ranked club among Valdez’s opponents in OAA was the Mets (-3 OAA), while the Giants were next in DRS at +39.
Valdez’s best defense: Cubs
While Valdez doesn’t have an over-the-top split in his career, he has been better against lefties (17.6% K-BB%, .223 batting average) than against righties in his career (14.1 K-BB%, .230 against BA).
While there is always change from year to year in the composition of the lineup, there was a big difference in how the left plate looked separately last season.
For example, there were nearly twice as many left-handed batters pitched by the top-ranked AL East (13,006 plate appearances) compared to the bottom-ranked AL West (7,524).
The Orioles played in a heavy “neighborhood,” against the most left-handed hitters last season (2,819 plate appearances) of any of Valdez’s major leaguers. They were followed by the Giants (2,740) and the Mets (2,734), with the Calves (2,473) lagging behind.
In other words, Orioles pitchers were 14% more likely than the Cubs’ arm to face left-handed batters last season. The AL East stats will always be as left-handed heavy as any division.
Best “place” for Valdez: The Orioles
Valdez’s most commonly cited opponents often have favorable pitching positions.
The Cubs and Giants are tied for 26th in Baseball Savant’s three-year rolling rankings. Citi Field and Camden Yards have also been some of the most favorable pitches over the past three seasons.
The home of the Orioles is an interesting story. Renovations to bring in the fence last season returned Camden to being a hitter’s ballpark, ranked as the sixth most favorable park.
But there’s a surprising disparity in performance in Baltimore that makes the case for the importance of including left-handed pitchers there.
Over the past three years, Oriole Park at Camden Yards has owned the widest separation between left-handed hitters versus right-handed hitters, ranking 7th best for lefties, but 23rd for righties.
Breaking down just the right-handed batters, the left-handed batters will face more often, Wrigley Field trails only T-Mobile Park over the past three years in most offensive efficiency, surpassing Oracle Park (96 to 97).
Valdez’s best ballpark: Push
Most important is the club’s turnover rate. Which groups have the most demand?
According to this year’s FanGraphs.com depth chart rankings, this is how Valdez’s opponents rank entering Jan. 15: Mets 11.8 (17th), Orioles 11.5 (18th), Cubs 11.2 (19th), Giants 10.4 (24th).
The Giants have one lefty featured in their rotation right now in Robbie Ray. While the club added Tyler Mahle to the game, they could still benefit from another quality arm to put alongside Logan Webb.
The Mets haven’t made any major additions to their rotation, though they will have a full season from Nolan McLean and have other quality arms like Jonah Tong ready to help as well. They enjoy significant opportunities for inner growth. The team is also hoping to get more than one inning out of the remaining two innings pitched in Sean Manaea. And in an effort to keep up with the Dodgers, the Mets could revolve around bolstering their rotation with as much star power as possible.
The Orioles made a significant trade to acquire Shane Baz from Tampa Bay, though he is far from a proven asset. The team is hoping for a full season from Kyle Bradish, who played well in his return late last season. However, they are the only contenders on this team who did not have a pitcher reach the 3 fWAR level last season.
The weakest expected rotation: Giants
Obviously, each of these clubs would benefit from having Valdez’s track record of consistency and quality in a trade. Every MLB club would love to. But because of their difficult position, because of the lack of need for a guaranteed top rotation, and because their ballpark favors lefties more than righties — Valdez is a great fit in Baltimore.
The Orioles made a big effort to improve this offseason by adding Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward to bolster their lineup, and adding Baz to their rotation. But to truly compete with the Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox and Rays, they need more help in their rotation.
