Twins and catcher Victor Caratini they are reportedly on a two-year, $14MM deal. Minnesota has a full 40-man roster and will need a consistent move to make this official. Caratini is an ACES client.
Caratini, now 32, was a free agent a few years ago. He signed a two-year, $12MM deal with the Astros at the time. That deal ended up working out well for Houston. The switch hitter pitched in 201 games over those two seasons and struck out 660 times. His 7% walk rate was low but he hit 20 home runs and kept his strikeout rate down to a 17.9% clip. He had a combined .263 /.329/.406 line with the Astros, production that translated into a wRC+ of 108.
His work behind the plate has been more of a mixed bag. Outlets like FanGraphs, Statcast and Baseball Prospectus give him strong draft marks. FanGraphs and Statcast don’t look kindly on his career in the running game but both BP and Statcast like his blocking skills.
The entire package was still worth 2.7 wins over replacement over the past two seasons, according to FanGraphs. At the start of the season, MLBTR projected Caratini to a $14MM deal over two years. You really hit that mark.
The twins already have a strong rib cage Ryan Jeffers but it is possible to see how he and Caratini could be in the same list. Jeffers is a right-handed hitter and has the most visible team splits in his career. He has a .270/.371/.475 line and a 138 wRC+ against southpaws but a .226/.299/.396 line and a 94 wRC+ against them. Caratini’s shifter has generally been more balanced. He had a .208/.306/.434 line and a 108 wRC+ against lefties last year and a .268/.327/.399 line and a 104 wRC+ against righties.
Caratini has also played first base, with 463 2/3 innings in that position in his career, including 97 last year. It’s a twin project to have Josh Bell at first, another switch hitter. Bell has career-best neutral fields but hit just .151/.250/.302 against the rest last year. A measly .162 batting average on balls in play certainly hurt him in the split but the Twins may want to at least have a contingency plan in case Bell’s struggles against southpaws continue.
Perhaps the plan is for Caratini to spend time with Jeffers behind the plate, sometimes shielding him from tight ends, while occasionally playing first. With Jeffers an upcoming free agent, Caratini then took on a more prominent role in 2027.
It is also possible that Jeffers ends up on the trade block. He will make $6.7MM in his final year before hitting the open market. Signing Caratini and flipping Jeffers would be a neutral move for the Twins, who would return whatever Jeffers can get on the trade market.
The twins have it too Alex Jackson in the list. He was acquired from the Orioles in November. He and the Twins avoided arbitration earlier this month by agreeing to a $1.35MM salary. Johnny Pereda he’s also a 40-man but still optionable and could be kept in Triple-A.
If the Twins plan to hang on to both Caratini and Jeffers, then Jackson could be cut from the roster, having run out of options. If he were to be moved off waivers, he would likely stick around as undrafted depth. He has more than three years of service but less than five. That means he will have the right to opt for free agency but will have to give up his remaining salary obligations to exercise that right.
Time will tell with domino effects. Meanwhile, the Twins have made limited improvements to their roster. Minnesota is looking to lower its payroll by 2025 but has run out of dry powder. They cut a lot of money from the budget last year through trade Carlos Correa and almost their entire bullpen. It has been suggested that they could be looking to start the 2026 season in the $115MM range. RosterResource puts them at $107MM, assuming Caratini’s guarantee is spread evenly.
The bullpen could still use some help and they probably still have some power to spend on that. Trading Jeffers would give them a little more breathing room, while potentially returning something useful.
In the holding market in general, there may be a bit of a run going on here in mid-January. The offseason started with JT Realmuto as the top free agent available, followed by Caratini and Danny Jansen. Rangers are not bought Jonah Heim in November and then signed Jansen in December but the market sat on the sidelines for a while, possibly because the Phillies were exploring the possibility of a signing. Bo Bichette. Going down that road would likely prevent the Phils from having enough money to re-sign Realmuto.
In the last 24 hours, a lot has changed. The Dodgers reached an agreement with them Kyle Tucker. The Mets, who had hoped to sign Tucker, turned to Bichette on a short-term deal with a large mid-year salary. The Phils, who gave Bichette a less than one-year extension, were moving toward a new deal with Realmuto.
That left Caratini as the clear top option left in free agency. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Phils are looking at him as a backup if they don’t do something about Realmuto. Perhaps it’s no coincidence that the Twins snapped up Caratini just hours after it was reported that Realmuto was returning to Philly.
The Astros were interested in bringing Caratini back but realized he would get better pay and a bigger role elsewhere, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Shortly before this reported deal with the Twins, MassLive’s Chris Cotillo floated Caratini as a possible Red Sox prospect. It is believed that there are also other groups that want to hold the development.
With Realmuto and Caratini both off the board today, the market is looking less exciting. Heim is one of the most notable free agents still available, on the sideline Luke Maile, Elias Díaz, Reese McGuire, Christian Vázquez, Mitch Garver again Gary Sanchez. Maybe that will work to help Minnesota if they want to make Jeffers available.
Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that the Twins and Caratini have a two-year contract. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported a $14MM guarantee. Photos courtesy of Brett Davis, Tim Heitman, Imagn Images
