NFL

Buffalo Bills up/down trend ahead of Divisional Round vs Denver Broncos

ballervisions 2026年1月17日

The Buffalo Bills are riding high after an upset 27-24 Wild Card win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last Sunday, marking their first road win since the 1992 NFL season. Quarterback Josh Allen’s late-game heroics, including a game-winning touchdown catch, propelled the team despite a battered roster and sluggish running game. The win showed Buffalo’s resilience but also exposed some concerns, especially on the floor, offensively and defensively.

Now, moving up as a six seed, the Bills head to Denver to face the top-seeded Broncos in the AFC Divisional Round. Sean Payton’s team, which has been on a roll, has a strong running back that led the league with 68 sacks in 2025, and may try to do what the Jaguars did to Allen last weekend.

Going forward, let’s break down the top three Bills players and coaches trending up and down, based on their Wild Card performance. Selections are drawn from watching tape, and looking at key stats and advanced metrics like Pro Football Focus (The PFF) grades, adjusted completion percentage, and big-time throws. These trends highlight who has stepped up to the playoff pressure cooker, and who needs to tackle a Broncos defense that has allowed 12-fewer passing yards (3,606) and held quarterbacks to 311 rushing yards all season.

Heroes: What’s trending

1. QB Josh Allen

No surprise here – Allen was Superman in Jacksonville, accounting for 90% of Buffalo’s total yards (306 of 340) and all three touchdowns. He completed 28-of-35 passes (80%) for 273 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions, while adding 11 carries for 33 yards and two scores, including the decisive one-yarder to the Schnow Plow with 1:12 left. His 133.0 passer rating while trailing emphasized his clutch nature, and he built his first game-winning drive of the postseason (not really, but actually the first one that wasn’t wasted).

The advanced metrics are even brighter: Allen posted a 94.0 The PFF overall grade (highest among Wild Card quarterbacks), with an adjusted completion rate of 88.2%, three big-time throws, and turnovers. Despite absorbing some tough hits (including a concussion check, a sprained throwing finger, and a sprained knee), he was sacked only once, successfully ripping through a Jaguars defense that held him to 36.8% of the downs.

Josh was coming off what had been two long weeks since missing the game-winning drive against the Philadelphia Eagles, and the questions about his health were well underway. Despite being beaten even more in Jacksonville, he was still able to produce one of the most impressive pure quarterbacking performances of his career, playing within the structure of the offense, laser-focused pre-and-post-snap, and making good decisions and accurate throws all afternoon.

Add in Allen’s double-double dominance (4,247 total yards and 39 touchdowns in the regular season), and he’s the engine of a potential upset in Denver, where he’ll need to exploit the Broncos’ vulnerability to mobile quarterbacks.

2. S Cole Bishop

The second-year safety sealed the win with the only touchdown of the game on Trevor Lawrence’s last attempt, catching a pass that bounced off his arms after Tre’Davious White’s deflection was still there. Bishop’s play was part of a defensive revival in the fourth quarter, where Buffalo forced a punt and a turnover after allowing points on three straight Jaguars drives to open the second half.

Bishop finished with seven tackles, a pass breakup, and an 82.5 The PFF Combine distance, allowing just two catches for 18 yards on four targets. His speed (4.45 40-yard dash) and instincts helped limit Jacksonville’s explosive plays, holding it to 6.9 yards per pass completion, and Trevor Lawrence at 30.1 ESPN QBR.

Paired with safety Jordan Poyer, Bishop bolstered Buffalo’s secondary, which ranks first in opponent completion percentage (56.8%) as of Week 12. Against Denver’s Bo Nix, who threw for just 144 yards in the wild-card loss at Buffalo, Bishop won’t have Poyer around him, making his offensive skills even more valuable.

3. HC Sean McDermott and his coaching staff

McDermott’s tactical changes and smart decisions turned the tide. His successful play challenge in the fourth race of Lawrence forced a drop, changing the momentum. The defense, with the help of defensive coordinator Bobby Babich but under his direction, slowed down late despite gaining 359 total yards, produced two turnovers and limited Jacksonville to 5-of-10 on third and fourth downs.

Offensively, McDermott and offensive coordinator Joe Brady trusted Allen in the top spots, calling for an aggressive play action that produced 7.8 yards per attempt. He remained calm and collected in adversity, with the Bills overcoming injuries to wide receiver Gabe Davis and veteran safety Jordan Poyer throughout the game.

McDermott’s 8-7 postseason record now includes this historic road win, and his emphasis on “grit” and fighting through adversity has the team on the rise at the right time – Buffalo’s defense has allowed just 251 yards per game since Week 12 (second in the NFL). He’ll need that same fire to combat Payton’s tactics in last year’s 31-7 Bills Wild Card run.

Head Scratchers: Trending Down

1. RB James Cook

The NFL’s reigning rushing champion (1,621 yards, 12 TDs in 2025) was bottled up, managing just 46 yards on 15 carries (3.1 YPC) against a Jaguars front that boxed in 60% runs. Cook’s longest gain was nine yards, and he forced just three fumbles, down from his season average. His 58.7 The PFF yardage averages among the Bills’ offensive linemen, showing short yardage inefficiency (0-for-2 on 3rd & Short). Buffalo’s running game was limited to just 79 yards, forcing Allen into hero mode.

Cook should regain his explosiveness against Denver, who averaged backs 4.2 ypc in 2025. With running back Ty Johnson’s status up in the air, it would be nice to see Jimbo more involved in the passing game (just 2 catches on 3 targets for 5 yards vs. Jacksonville). Second-Team All-Pros help will certainly be appreciated by his franchise quarterback.

2.RB/KR Ray Davis

Speaking of All-Pro help, how about running back Ray Davis? Buffalo’s lone First-Team selection didn’t have as much impact on the game as expected in Jacksonville, which lost a fumble on one of its four punt returns. His 57.9 The PFF The range shows he could have played better, as he gained 119 yards (29.8 average) on four kick returns, the longest of which was 34 yards.

It wasn’t bad by any means but, on the biggest stage, the Bills need their best players playing at their best, and in Ray’s case, that includes not taking the ball away and surpassing his league-best 30.4 punt return average. It could be the difference in what could be a defensive battle at Mile High.

3. RT Spencer Brown

Brown struggled in pass protection, allowing three pressures and a sack that stopped the second quarter drive. His 59.5 PFF grade highlights the issues at top speed, as Jacksonville’s Travon Walker beat him twice. The line as a whole allowed pressure on 36.8% of the downs, forcing Allen to get the ball out quickly or fumble frequently. Brown’s blocking was average (56.2 PFF), negatively impacting the ground game.

Against Denver’s Nik Bonitto (14 sacks) and his strong pass-rushing corps, Brown and the Bills OL need a rebound. Being able to run the ball properly and keep the offense in front of the chains will be a must. Allowing their defense to put Buffalo on 3rd and playing long consistently to the strengths of Vance Joseph’s unit. The Bills should avoid it at all costs.

Honorable Mentions

Heroes:

WR Khalil Shakir (12 catches, 12 targets, 82 yards; 85.0 PFF receiving reliability grade);
WR Brandin Cooks (key catch for 36 yards, 19.3 yards per receiver last week);
CB Tre’Davious White (tipped pass leading to INT, 33.2 passer rating allowed in last 5 games).

Head-Scratchers:

WR Gabe Davis (60.6 PFF, two drops, season-ending injury);
DE Joey Bosa (Player): Has not appeared in 31 snaps with zero snaps, one QB hit, 39.0 PFF grade (5.9% rushing win rate);
DE Greg Rousseau (Player): Neutral with zero sacks, one pressure, and a 52.4 PFF passer rating (7.1% win rate), allowing 5.2 YPC to run against him.