Betting buzz: The AFC has historically been wide open entering the divisional stage

Everything that happens in sports has more context when viewed from a betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting seasons and more, the news cycle will continue to impact the sports betting industry.

Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to give fans an idea of ​​the sports betting news that’s driving the conversation.

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Jan. 15: The AFC has historically been wide open entering the division stage

Doug Greenberg: Heading into the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, it feels like any team from the AFC could represent the conference in the Super Bowl. The future supports this idea in a big way.

The New England Patriots are picked to win the AFC at +230, but the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos are right behind at +260 each and the Houston Texans at +340, per DraftKings lines as of Thursday afternoon.

If those errors should delay:

• New England will be the longest favorite to win the conference heading into the division, according to historical odds data from SportsOddsHistory.com dating back to 2008.

• Houston will be the shortest shot to win the AFC and the second-shortest to win any conference going into the divisional round.

Continuing to highlight the matchup, DraftKings has released the lines of reasoning for the tournament round, and all four matchups could feature a 1.5 spread. Notably, the Broncos will be favored in any matchup, the Patriots will be the underdog in the matchup, and the Bills and Texans get one favorite role each. A possible short money line in that situation would be Denver over Houston at -122.

Bettors are predicting an AFC East championship in the conference championship, with Buffalo and New England’s getting most of their divisional playoffs, according to DraftKings. At BetMGM, the Bills have a 16.5% ticket to win the conference but the Broncos are the biggest bookie with a 24.2% handle, which includes $100,000, $75,000 and $50,000 wagers at +350 odds.

Jan. 12: Bettors cash in on Bears’ latest comeback, 49ers upset

Written by Doug Greenberg

It was definitely a wild, crazy weekend.

The first round of the NFL playoffs started with a bang on Saturday when the Carolina Panthers nearly pulled off a stunning upset of the Los Angeles Rams as 10.5-point home underdogs, the biggest playoff spread of the Super Bowl era.

When the Panthers took the lead late in the fourth quarter, they were briefly favored before LA stormed back with a game-winning drive by Matthew Stafford to win on a field goal. Still, the heavily favored, publicly backed Rams failure to cover the spread was a good result for the sportsbooks, according to Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel.

However, Saturday’s second game — a quick classic between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears — was an absolute magnet for live action and ended up winning the public in a big way.

Coming off one of their slowest starts, the Bears were down 21-3 heading into the second half and have live money line odds of +1400 at DraftKings Sportsbook. As bettors understand Chicago’s late-game heroics throughout the season, they back the Bears with the majority of in-game bets in the major books, including 70% of stream bets and 71% of moneyline bets on DraftKings.

The impressive victory for the Bears was “the best result of the weekend for bettors,” according to a representative from BetMGM. When Chicago fell behind, Caesars took a +4.5 (+110) live bet that ended up paying $105,000.

“The Bears drew a lot of attention as the momentum shifted in the second half,” Feazel said via email. “Anytime we have a private game, especially in the playoffs, there’s usually an increase in volume. As the Bears keep the game competitive, that only increases the already high activity.”

Sunday kept this momentum going with the story of many goals between the Buffalo Bills and the Jacksonville Jaguars which benefited the public. The bison was shut down as a minor due to some sharp action, according to Feazel, but attracted a lot of bettors and money at BetMGM and TheScore Bet.

After that, the San Francisco 49ers knocked off the reigning champion Philadelphia Eagles. Coming off a sharp week of action in Philly, the Niners ended up winning after closing as 5.5-point underdogs, benefiting public bettors who support San Fran with the majority of bettors across the sportsbook market. According to ESPN Research, this was the second largest upset in the wild card round since the playoffs were expanded in 2020.

One of the only sportsbook wins over the weekend was in the low-scoring contest between the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots. With TE Hunter Henry’s score in the fourth quarter serving as the only touchdown, limiting the efficiency of any touchdown game, BetMGM reported the game as its biggest win of the weekend.

However, the book still has some responsibility on its hands going forward. BetMGM chief commercial officer Christian Cipollini said before the games that the Chargers or Jaguars winning the Super Bowl would be “the best result for the sportsbook.” Of course, both were ruled out of Sunday’s contest.

Looking ahead

Monday night’s final wild-card game between the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers featured the lowest rating (38.5) for a playoff game since the 2016 wild-card game, according to ESPN Research. The Texans -3 attracted the most spread bets (61%) and handles (65%) on DraftKings.

The divisional circuit lines went up on Sunday evening and showed a few interesting things from the get-go.

The AFC’s top-seeded Denver Broncos opened as slight favorites over the Bills, but that line has changed and Buffalo is now a 1.5-point road favorite. If that holds, it would be the first time that a No. 1 has been the home underdog since the 2017 Eagles, who also hold the distinction of being the biggest home underdogs ever in the playoffs (+2.5), per ESPN Research.

The Rams opened as 4.5-point road favorites against the Bears, but heavy early action in Chicago at DraftKings saw the line drop to -3.5. If the line returns to -4.5, it will tie Los Angeles for the biggest road favorite in the divisional round since the 1970 AFL/NFL combine.

Finally, the NFC-leading Seattle Seahawks opened as 6.5-point favorites over the 49ers and have already jumped to -7.5 with the highest percentage of money backing them.

ESPN’s David Purdum contributed to this story.