Bracketology: Duke, UConn rise to No. 1 in NCAA Tournament projection
This week brought a significant shakeup to the No. 1 seed. 1 in CBS Sports Bracketology as our model reacts to Iowa State and Vanderbilt losing for the first time. Both the Cyclones and the Commodores were eliminated from their spots in the top bracket after road losses against non-conference foes.
Duke and UConn stepped up and took their places heading into another big weekend of conference action around college basketball. The Blue Devils and Huskies aren’t exactly rivals, but they find ways to win.
UConn’s 13-game winning streak is tied with BYU for the longest streak outside of the three remaining undefeated teams. Since falling to Arizona on November 19, the Huskies have earned wins over Illinois, Kansas, Florida and Texas, in addition to starting Big East play at 7-0. As a result, UConn tops the nation in wins above the bubble (WAB), bolstering its case for the No. 1 seed. 1 at this time.
Duke trails UConn at No. 2 in the WAB as the Blue Devils lead the nation in Quad 1 with seven wins. Among them was Wednesday night’s win over Cal, which narrowly qualifies as a Quad 1 game for now. To maintain their status as the No. 1 seed. 1 will be a challenge for the Blue Devils on Saturday as they face Stanford as they complete the second leg of their West Coast tour.
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Check out the complete field of 68 on the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
Despite sitting at No. 28 in the NET, Saint Mary’s is among the First Four Outs in the CBS Sports Bracketology model. That will change Saturday when the Gaels beat Santa Clara on the road. A trip south of 50 miles to play the Broncos brings the second Quad 1 opportunity of the season for Saint Mary’s, which lost by 25 to Vanderbilt in its only other Quad 1 game.
30 in KenPom and a 17-2 (6-0 WCC) record, the Gaels look to be part of the NCAA Tournament. But with 12 of those 16 wins coming in Quad 3 and 4, they need a rebound, and a win over Santa Clara would do wonders. Our model’s initial projections suggest that a win would elevate Saint Mary’s as the No. 1 seed. 9 in Bracketology while doubling its selection percentage from 41.4% to 83%.
Our early projections suggest that a loss would leave the Gaels with a 16.2% chance of making the Big Dance. Such a situation would attach high stakes to the two games against Gonzaga (Jan. 31 and Feb. 28) in their final meetings as WCC foes before Gonzaga leaves for Pac 12 playoff.
Stanford highlights ACC resurgence
A year after placing four of its 18 teams in the NCAA Tournament field, the ACC is enjoying a significant resurgence. Entering the weekend, nine ACC teams are in the field, according to the CBS Sports Bracketology model. Two others – Virginia Tech and Syracuse – are not far behind. Strong first campaigns for new coaches Jai Lucas (Miami), Will Wade (NC State) and Ryan Odom (Virginia) have helped breathe new life into the conference.
But no one has been more surprised than Stanford. Picked to finish 17th in the league’s preseason poll, the Cardinal (14-4, 3-2 ACC) improved to 4-1 in Quad 1 after upsetting North Carolina 95-90 on Wednesday. Now comes another chance to show off Saturday against Duke in a battle between two of the nation’s most exciting young players.
Three-star guard Ebuka Okorie leads the ACC in scoring at 22.9 points per game at Stanford and recently scored UNC with 36 points. But the Cardinals will have their hands full against a Duke team led by five-star phenom Cam Boozer. The offensive lineman has led the Blue Devils to a 16-1 (5-0) start and the No. 1 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology.
