NFL round betting: Count on the running game to lead the Seahawks past the 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers travel to Seattle for Saturday night’s NFC divisional tilt against the Seahawks, and we have the highlight tape from the Week 18 game in San Francisco to study.
Matt Bowen will focus on the matchups and look at the responses from both clubs and offer his take, and Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, Ben Solak and Seth Walder share their best bets, analysis and DFS plays to help you get in on the action.
Note: Odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
When the 49ers had the ball
Bowen: Kyle Shanahan and Christian McCaffrey’s running game has failed to perform well this season, but it remains a cornerstone of San Francisco’s offense. McCaffrey will see volume Saturday night while using his elite dual-threat skills as a receiver. In the Week 18 contest, Seattle limited the 49ers and Brock Purdy to just one completion of 20 yards or more, and with George Kittle now out with a torn Achilles, Shanahan needs to play off Seattle’s defensive tendencies to create throwing windows.
Edge: The Seahawks
Best bet: Jauan Jennings OVER 40.5 receiving yards (-114): Jennings can work the lower levels against the Seahawks’ two-deep spots, and Shanahan can put him in a middle-of-the-field direction without play action, leading to numbers after the catch. Jennings has gained 40 yards or more in two of his past four games.
When the Seahawks have the ball
Bowen: The running game under Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak got the daylights out of zone concepts against the 49ers in Week 18, as both Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet rushed for more than 70 yards. Look for Seattle to incorporate the running game on early downs in this matchup, and we know wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba will find his targets on both the perimeter and the slot. And don’t forget about the exact picture that plays in Seattle’s game plan for quarterback Sam Darnold.
Edge: The Seahawks
Best bet: Charbonnet OVER 61.5 yards rushing/receiving (-111): Charbonnet has had at least 97 yards in each of his last two games, with 17-or-more carries in each. Look for the immediate volume to remain the same as Charbonnet created in the space in the screen views.
Staff picks, best bets and props
Seahawks -7 (-120)
Maldonado: This is control versus weakness. The Seahawks are in the top two in scoring defense, yards per play allowed and special teams EPA. They’ve already shown the blueprint in Week 18: win early downs, stifle efficiency and drain the clock. San Francisco managed 173 yards and a 31% success rate in that game, and is now coming up short with George Kittle out of the equation.
Zach Charbonnet OVER 47.5 rushing yards (-111)
Moody: The Seahawks’ backfield is the epitome of a committee, but Charbonnet has cleared that line in two straight games and posted at least 17 rushing attempts in one. Seattle’s offensive line finished the regular season ranked eighth in run block wins and faces a 49ers defense that is missing key players, including Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. The Eagles rushed for 140 yards against San Francisco in last week’s wild-card round, and Seattle should find similar success on the ground.
Jake Tonges OVER 36.5 receiving yards (-113)
Loza: Tonges thrived as Kittle’s replacement, registering at least 37 yards receiving in four of the six regular-season contests in which the aforementioned star was sidelined. He also scored three points after Kittle left early in last weekend’s contest. Seattle’s defense is a strength, but Mike McDonald’s unit has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to TEs (63.5 per game average) this season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 100+ receiving yards (+107)
Moody: Smith-Njigba has cleared that line in one of his last five games, but you can’t ignore that he has averaged 9.6 goals and 105.5 receiving yards per game this season. He also cleared 100 yards in one of his two matchups against the 49ers. San Francisco’s defense remains short and has been a good matchup for multiple receivers all season, making it easy to envision Seattle leaning heavily on Smith-Njigba in the divisional round.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Loza’s recommendations
Captain (gets 1.5x fantasy points): Sam Darnold ($15,600). Let’s relax. Darnold has emerged as a solid quarterback for the Seahawks, compiling 4,048 passing yards (QB5) and 8.5 yards per attempt (QB2) this season. Although he failed to clear 200 passing yards or score a touchdown in either of his regular season meetings against the 49ers, the postseason is striking differently. Looking to avenge the criticism he has faced for his performance in pressure situations (Vikings fans feel this), Darnold should have the courage to attack the 49ers’ defense.
Also on my list: Seahawks D/ST ($4.200). Seattle’s defense held opponents to less than 20 points in all but four contests during the regular season. The Seahawks also ranked first in defensive efficiency. San Francisco’s offense could be strong, but Brock Purdy registered three INTs and was sacked four times over his two regular season meetings against Seattle. He will also be without George Kittle, and Ricky Pearsall is still standing. Coming off an off week, Seattle will bring the best in this rivalry game.
Maldonado’s recommendations
Captain (gets 1.5x fantasy points): Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($17,100). Seattle’s offense has shifted to short and safe plays, which puts the volume right on JSN. He leads the team with goals, wins from the bottom and is always stuck outside the script of the game.
Also on my list: Kenneth Walker III ($8,400). This screams “Walker Game” with Seattle looking to control the clock and the body. San Francisco’s run defense is bent, especially with injuries at linebacker. Walker’s car spikes for the win, and his red zone role gives him a TD pass.
Walder’s recommendations
Captain (gets 1.5x legend points). Purdy ($15,900). It’s no secret that the Seahawks have the best defense in the NFL. And running the ball hasn’t been the 49ers’ strength this year, though. If the Niners are going to win, it’s going to be up in the air, so they’re going to have to let Purdy pull it off.
Also on my list: Zach Charbonnet ($8,200). Especially early in their week 18 win over the 49ers, the Seahawks — who also haven’t run the ball that well this year! — they were able to run all over San Francisco. It’s possible the 49ers will be in better shape at linebacker now that Fred Warner could be back, but that’s not a guarantee as of this writing, and I’m generally happy to bet against San Francisco’s defense at this stage of the season.
