MLB

The Nolan Arenado trade is a win for the Diamondbacks among the Cardinals’ limited options

ballervisions 2026年1月14日

St. Louis Cardinals continued their offseason on Tuesday, completing a deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks to send third baseman Nolan Arenado to the desert in exchange for right-hander Jack Martinez, Arizona’s eighth-round pick last summer.

At first glance, seeing a potential future Hall of Famer traded for a minor league arm who hasn’t even thrown a pitch seems incredibly uneven, but this trade is a product of a number of factors surrounding the names involved. It’s the end result of last season’s dating saga, when the Cardinals sought to free themselves from Arenado’s onerous contract while giving the veteran a chance to play for a contending team elsewhere while St. Louis shifts the organization’s focus to the future.

And while Arenado’s name still carries major league weight around the world as one of the most decorated position players of his generation, it’s impossible to ignore the extent to which his performance has declined in recent years, which greatly appreciates the nature of the deal.

Arenado was an all-around hitter early in his career with the Colorado Rockies, putting up impressive numbers at the plate playing half of his games at Coors Field while pitching a third-generation defense, earning a Golden Glove all eight years of his tenure in Denver. Sold to St. Louis for just two seasons in eight years, a $260 million extension he signed with Colorado before the 2019 season, Arenado quickly proved that his star stats weren’t just a product of the high-friendly elevation in Colorado, delivering an impressive 2022 season that saw him finish third in NL MVP voting.

He continued to shine early in his third season as a Cardinal in 2023, making his eighth career All-Star Game, but his production dipped in the second half of that season and he has been on a downward spiral ever since. His once-extraordinary glove is now only average, and his bat has fallen below league average: Among the 120 hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances over the past two seasons, Arenado’s 95 wRC+ ranks 107th.

Most importantly, Arenado held significant leverage in these negotiations, as the no-trade clause in his contract helped him green-light his destination once the Cardinals found a willing trade partner. Arenado rejected an agreed-upon trade with the Astros last season in hopes that a different suitor would emerge, but that never happened, and the trade didn’t materialize at last year’s trade deadline when Arenado was in the midst of his worst season as a major leaguer.

Still, Arenado and the Cardinals reentered this offseason focused on finding a balance for both sides moving forward, realizing that moving the $41 million owed to Arenado over the next two seasons would be difficult given his recent performance.

[Get more Diamondbacks news: Arizona team feed]

Therefore, Arenado’s modest projection on the field entering his age-35 season, along with the fact that he was still exercising his no-trade clause, meant that little was expected of the Cardinals’ ability to bounce back in significant value. That Martinez was the only player Arizona had to part with and that St.

Nolan Arenado isn’t the elite player he once was, but the D-backs got a proven veteran in a position of need at a discount.

(Dilip Vishwanath via Getty Images)

The D-backs are a team that spent much of the winter involved more in gossip than in actual shopping activity. Save for the re-signing of backup catcher James McCann and December’s free-agent additions — the return of longtime centerpiece Merrill Kelly after being traded to Texas at last year’s deadline, and Michael Soroka — the D-backs have made more headlines with moves they’ve reportedly been considering than they have in years.

First, it was possible for the Snakes to trade sophomore star Ketel Marte, a serious gamble in theory meant to increase depth at the tight end position by dealing the highly prized Marte with much-needed minor league play. At the time, there were consistent reports that the D-backs were interested in third baseman Alex Bregman, perhaps as a creative way to replace Marte if they were to trade him. Finally, general manager Mike Hazen decided last week that Marte was no longer available for trade talks. A few days later, Bregman agreed to a deal with the Chicago Cubs, making both positions ineffective despite weeks of speculation.

How serious Arizona was in pursuing Bregman is unclear, but those rumors suggest the club is looking at third base as a position of need. It’s not a big surprise considering the Snakes dealt Eugenio Suárez at last year’s trade deadline, but it also seems reasonable to look at Arizona’s depth chart and see it as an opportunity to give the keys to Jordan Lawlar, the 23-year-old, the best infielder who has always bullied the kids but has not been available due to his major injury. The logical approach for Arizona would have been to roll with Lawlar at third base and focus its offseason strategy and spend almost exclusively on adding much-needed pitching.

Apparently, Arizona still views Arenado — for what will be only $11 million over the next two seasons — as a worthy upgrade. That probably says more about the extent to which even this slimmed-down version of Arenado can be a bargain at that price than it does about Arizona’s reliance on Lawlar long-term, but it’s an interesting roster choice nonetheless. As we recently saw with the Cubs signing Bregman despite the presence of a talented young pitcher in Matt Shaw, contending teams are often willing to add veteran certainty even if it comes at the expense of younger players who don’t have much playing time.

That’s not to say Arenado should be expected to make remotely the same level of impact as Bregman in Chicago, but it’s not hard to imagine Arizona liking the idea of adding a respected veteran like Arenado to a roster that skews too young. And if he can provide stability at third base, that could play a significant role in boosting Arizona’s chances of staying afloat in what is expected to be another hot National League postseason race.

Speaking of the Snakes chasing a return to the postseason, if there’s anything missing from Arenado’s loaded resume, it’s an unforgettable postseason success. Arenado made just four trips to the postseason in his 13 years in the majors — two with Colorado and two with St. Louis. Louis – but never made it beyond the division chain. He hasn’t shined in those limited opportunities — he’s struck out just five times in 33 at-bats in the postseason — but generally, his lack of October experience reflects much less on his efforts than it does on the teams he’s been a part of.

With that in mind, as his career ends, it is understood that Arenado will prioritize a club with competitive ambitions when scouting the area for potential trades. Of course, it wasn’t entirely up to him, as the team still needed to step up and consider him a valuable addition.

Acknowledging that Arenado may not have a ton of contending teams interested in a player at his current level, Arizona is a solid landing spot, all things considered.