NFL divisional round: The big question facing the remaining eight teams
The 2025 NFL season is arguably the most predictable year in league history.
Five of the first 14 playoff teams reached the postseason after losing 11 or more games the previous year, the most teams in NFL history. Four of the league’s division winners won five or fewer games last season, the most in NFL history.
That balance has produced one of the — if not the most — unpredictable seasons in NFL history, and we’ve only gotten through one round. The 12 fourth-quarter lead changes in the wild-card round are the most in a single postseason in NFL history. The four game-winning touchdowns in the final three minutes are the most in a single postseason in league history, and the four game-winning touchdowns in the final three minutes of the fourth quarter already ranks as the most in a single postseason in NFL history.
Given the high level of disparity, any of the eight teams left in the divisional round may feel they can’t make a run to the Super Bowl. However, all eight have big questions to answer in order to complete a fantasy season. Here’s a look at what each of the NFL’s elite eight must win to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy at the end of Super Bowl LX.
Can their run defense hold up?
This season will be 2024 NFL MVP quarterback Josh Allen’s best to take home the Vince Lombardi Trophy. His eight career playoff wins are the most by a quarterback without a Super Bowl start, and the Bills’ path is beginning to clear.
Allen’s Bills will face Bo Nix’s Broncos in the divisional round, a team Buffalo went 31-7 in the wild card round last season. After that, they could face the Patriots, a team that split the season series, or the Texans, a team that, like the Broncos, has a brutal defense but an inconsistent offense.
The biggest question for the Bills going forward is simple: Can their defense hold up? When teams face Buffalo, they aim to minimize the amount of time Allen spends on the field. That’s happening, as the Bills have the NFL’s fifth-worst rushing defense (136.2 rushing yards allowed per game) and the league’s third-worst rushing defense (5.1 yards per carry allowed).
Time of possession was not an issue for the Bills during the regular season, as they led the NFL with a 33:08 average. That’s thanks to having 2025 NFL rushing champion James Cook (1,621 yards) at running back and the league’s leading quarterback in Allen (579 rushing yards).
Can their offense pick up the slack, especially in the red zone?
The Texans defense is destroying the world. In the 2025 regular season, it ranked as the NFL’s No. 1 defense overall, allowing just 277.2 yards per game while giving up the second fewest points per game (17.4).
Houston he threw Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers offense in the locker Monday in a 30-6 victory: The Texans became the second team in NFL playoff history to record multiple defensive touchdowns while not allowing a touchdown in a playoff game. They joined the 1940 Chicago Bears, who accomplished the feat in winning the 73-0 NFL Championship against Washington.
However, against strong competition, that defensive performance can be undone by the offense. Quarterback CJ Stroud fumbled five times on Monday, tied for the most in a game in NFL playoff history. He had three hits, two losses and one interception in Houston’s win.
The Texans have been ineffective in the red zone, producing the third-lowest touchdown rate in the league at 46.3%. Only the New York Jets (44.7%) and New Orleans Saints (44.4%) were worse at converting chances inside the 20-yard line. Setting up for field goals instead of touchdowns in the red zone could be devastating for the Texans, wasting their defensive efforts.
Can their OL hold up against the NFL’s best defenses to protect Drake Maye?
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is having an incredible sophomore season. He is the first player to lead the NFL in completion percentage (72%), yards per pass attempt (8.9) and passer rating (113.5) since Tony Romo in 2014. He also led the league in expected points added (EPA) per rebound (0.28).
However, each of his smarts can be eliminated by the line of attack. New England allowed the ninth-highest quarterback pressure rate (37.7%) and the ninth-most sacks in the NFL (48) during the regular season. Maye was also sacked five times during the Patriots’ 16-3 wild card win over the Chargers.
Both the Broncos (68 sacks, most in the NFL) and the Texans (47 sacks, tied for seventh most) are ranked among the top 10 rushing units in the NFL, which could pose a threat to Maye and the Patriots.
Can their defense overcome the worst quarterback left in the playoffs, Bo Nix?
Bo Nix is a unique quarterback. He is the only player this season with more than 3,900 passing yards (3,931, eighth most in the NFL) and a yards-per-attempt average under 6.5 (6.4, 28th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks).
Nix’s consistency is why the Broncos, with five of the best players in football, won by one score (20-13) against Chiefs quarterback Chris Oladokun on Christmas Day in Week 17 and went on to a 19-3 Week 18 home win over the Chargers to top the AFC.
Passer rating isn’t the be-all, end-all metric for evaluating a quarterback’s play, but it’s unfair that Nix’s 87.8 grader rating ranks eighth-lowest in the NFL this season and lowest among the remaining eight quarterbacks.
Three of the top four teams with the most punts in the 2025 regular season — the Browns (93), Titans (78) and Raiders (74) — fired their head coaches after missing the playoffs. The fourth team is Nix’s Broncos, with 75 points. He benefits from a strong offensive line and the league’s best rushing defense and 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II at cornerback.
If there’s a reason Denver didn’t emerge as the AFC champion despite having the 1 seed and home field advantage, it will likely be because Nix isn’t playing at a level close enough to that of his dominant defense.
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Can they continue to overcome their heavy load of injuries?
It’s a small wonder that the 49ers are still alive entering the postseason division. The 49ers have had several players miss games due to injury in the playoffs this season, including the playoffs. Relatedly, they also have the most games they’ve missed due to injuries to Week 1 starters — their key players — among playoff teams this season.
All-Pro edge rusher Nick Bosa, All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner and All-Pro tight end George Kittle will not be in San Francisco in the divisional round for the No. 1-seeded Seahawks while playing on a short week Saturday night. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is one of the NFL’s most innovative coaches, but there comes a time when the talent lacking on the field outweighs the X’s and Os at the top.
Will their special teams come back to haunt them?
The Rams look like a real Super Bowl contender with the NFL’s No. 1 scoring offense (30.5 points per game) and the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense. 10 (20.4 points per game allowed). However, the third division of the game — special teams — can get them in trouble in a close game.
The Rams have the second-worst special teams expected extra points (-50) this season, ahead of only the 6-11 Saints (-59.89), thanks to allowing two special teams touchdowns, tied for third-most in the NFL. Only the Browns and Raiders have allowed more, with three each in 2025.
This is one of the reasons why Los Angeles has a 4-5 record in one-point games this season. Head coach Sean McVay fired special teams coordinator Chase Blackburn after Rashid Shaheed’s 58-yard punt helped the Seahawks rally from 16 points down in the fourth quarter to steal a 38-37 victory. That game helped the Seahawks win the NFC West and the NFC’s No. 1 seed. 1 over the Rams.
If Los Angeles isn’t strong on special teams, it could fall short of Super Bowl glory.
Can their defense make enough plays if they don’t produce?
The Bears defense led the NFL with 33 takeaways in 2025. However, if the opponent plays a clean game against it, things can get complicated. Chicago has allowed the 10th-most points per game (24.4) and fourth-most yards per game (361.8) this season.
The Packers didn’t turn the ball over against the Bears in the wild card round, allowing them to run out to a 21-3 lead. The Bears were able to complete an 18-point comeback, the largest in franchise playoff history, in a 31-27 victory because the defense forced Green Bay into four consecutive punts, and Packers kicker Brandon McManus left seven points on the field with two missed field goals and an extra point.
With that strong defensive factor, the Bears are going slow like a tightrope every week. Chicago will need to play a solid level of defense that has produced only in spurts this season if it hopes to get past the Rams and 2025 All-Pro quarterback Matthew Stafford in the divisional round.
Can Sam Darnold avoid big mistakes?
Sam Darnold has led the Seahawks back to the NFC West title and the NFC’s No. 1 seed, but his play has declined heading into the playoffs. He has eight total touchdowns and 10 turnovers since Week 11. His NFL-leading 20 turnovers (14 interceptions and six fumbles lost) in 2025 show a player prone to making a turnover at any time.
Just last year, Darnold also helped the Vikings to a 14-win regular season before falling with an NFL playoff-record nine sacks in his first season. The Vikings lost 27-9 in the wild card round to the Rams as a result.
His 8.5 yards per pass attempt (second-best in the NFL) and passer rating (99.1, 11th-best in the NFL) are solid, but there’s always a legitimate chance he returns to the Jets’ “seeing ghosts” version about him as he did in the playoffs last year.
